The past is uncertain: alternative responses of cloud forest mammals to the Last Glacial Maximum in the Oaxacan Highlands, Mexico

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 26,000–19,000 years before the present) altered the distribution of species worldwide. Its effect is poorly known in tropical regions because the cooling and drought reached during that period are uncertain. Here, I generated hypotheses regarding the possible responses of cloud forest mammals in the Oaxacan Highlands (OH) of Mexico, a region with one of the most extensive cloud forests in the Neotropics. First, I used three General Circulation Models (GCMs: CCSM3, MIROC-ESM and MPI) to characterize probable climates during the LGM. Then, I used ecological niche models to estimate the current and LGM potential distributions of four cloud forest species. As in other locations, the results show that GCMs are consistent with cooler conditions relative to today; however, the three GCMs estimate precipitation regimes with notable variations in the region. MPI indicates that the LGM could have been even wetter than present. Consequently, the MPI scenario allowed more widespread potential distributions of mammals. The paleodistributions show how mid- and lowlands were essential for the long-term survival of these ‘high-mountain mammals’ throughout the last glacial–interglacial cycle. The paleodistributions presented here are precise hypotheses that can be tested based on paleoecological and genetic evidence.