{"title":"了解偿债对尼日利亚经济增长的影响","authors":"Esther Kpalukwu, C. Ezekwe","doi":"10.56201/ijebm.v9.no5.2023.pg42.51","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the effect of external debt servicing on economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to determine the effects of multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Time series data required for the investigation were sourced from the World Development Indicators and International Debt Statistics. The data analysis techniques include descriptive statistics, unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test and parsimonious error correction model (ECM) in addition to the post- estimation tests. The unit root results showed that all the variables are stationary at first difference. In other words, this finding revealed that the variables are integrated into order one [I(1)]. Evidence of two cointegrating equations was established from the Johansen cointegration test results, which implies that GDP growth has a long-run relationship with multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks. The parsimonious ECM showed that multilateral debt service has a negative and significant effect on GDP growth. This implies that an increase in multilateral debt service is detrimental to economic growth. The results further showed that total debt service and external debt stocks negatively and significantly impacted GDP growth. This finding indicates that Nigeria has not productively utilized the growing stocks of foreign loans to enhance its contributions to economic growth. The error correction parameter (-0.432) is negative and significant, which suggests that short-run disequilibrium can adjust to a long-run equilibrium position at a speed of 43.2 per cent. Based on the findings, this study concludes that debt servicing undermines the growth of the Nigerian economy. Thus, it is recommended that among others the government should gradually reduce its debt stock to reduce the total debt service obligations and make more resources available for economic grow","PeriodicalId":486962,"journal":{"name":"IIARD INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS MANAGEMENT","volume":" 28","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Understanding the Growth Implications of Debt Servicing in Nigeria\",\"authors\":\"Esther Kpalukwu, C. Ezekwe\",\"doi\":\"10.56201/ijebm.v9.no5.2023.pg42.51\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This study examined the effect of external debt servicing on economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to determine the effects of multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Time series data required for the investigation were sourced from the World Development Indicators and International Debt Statistics. The data analysis techniques include descriptive statistics, unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test and parsimonious error correction model (ECM) in addition to the post- estimation tests. The unit root results showed that all the variables are stationary at first difference. In other words, this finding revealed that the variables are integrated into order one [I(1)]. Evidence of two cointegrating equations was established from the Johansen cointegration test results, which implies that GDP growth has a long-run relationship with multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究探讨了外债偿还对尼日利亚经济增长的影响。具体目标是确定多边偿债、总偿债和外债存量对国内生产总值(GDP)增长的影响。调查所需的时间序列数据来自《世界发展指标》和《国际债务统计》。数据分析技术包括描述性统计、单位根检验、约翰森协整检验、准误差修正模型(ECM)以及后估计检验。单位根结果显示,所有变量在一阶差分上都是静态的。换句话说,这一结果表明变量是一阶积分[I(1)]。Johansen 协整检验结果表明存在两个协整方程,这意味着 GDP 增长与多边偿债、总偿债和外债存量之间存在长期关系。解析性 ECM 显示,多边偿债对国内生产总值增长有显著的负向影响。这意味着多边还本付息额的增加不利于经济增长。结果还显示,总偿债率和外债存量对国内生产总值的增长有显著的负面影响。这一结果表明,尼日利亚没有有效利用不断增长的外国贷款存量来提高其对经济增长的贡献。误差修正参数(-0.432)为负且显著,这表明短期失衡能够以 43.2% 的速度调整到长期均衡状态。根据研究结果,本研究得出结论认为,偿债损害了尼日利亚经济的增长。因此,除其他外,建议政府逐步减少债务存量,以降低偿债义务总额,为经济增长提供更多资源。
Understanding the Growth Implications of Debt Servicing in Nigeria
This study examined the effect of external debt servicing on economic growth in Nigeria. The specific objectives are to determine the effects of multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks on gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Time series data required for the investigation were sourced from the World Development Indicators and International Debt Statistics. The data analysis techniques include descriptive statistics, unit root tests, Johansen cointegration test and parsimonious error correction model (ECM) in addition to the post- estimation tests. The unit root results showed that all the variables are stationary at first difference. In other words, this finding revealed that the variables are integrated into order one [I(1)]. Evidence of two cointegrating equations was established from the Johansen cointegration test results, which implies that GDP growth has a long-run relationship with multilateral debt service, total debt service and external debt stocks. The parsimonious ECM showed that multilateral debt service has a negative and significant effect on GDP growth. This implies that an increase in multilateral debt service is detrimental to economic growth. The results further showed that total debt service and external debt stocks negatively and significantly impacted GDP growth. This finding indicates that Nigeria has not productively utilized the growing stocks of foreign loans to enhance its contributions to economic growth. The error correction parameter (-0.432) is negative and significant, which suggests that short-run disequilibrium can adjust to a long-run equilibrium position at a speed of 43.2 per cent. Based on the findings, this study concludes that debt servicing undermines the growth of the Nigerian economy. Thus, it is recommended that among others the government should gradually reduce its debt stock to reduce the total debt service obligations and make more resources available for economic grow