不同发展阶段贸易中断的代价

IF 1.5 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

International Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-02-14 DOI:10.1111/iere.12690

J. Conesa, Matthew J. Delventhal, P. Pujolas, Gajendran Raveendranathan

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引用次数: 2

摘要

我们研究了 1850 年至 2000 年西班牙和英国两国、三行业模型中不同发展阶段的贸易中断。贸易中断的影响取决于贸易开放度和国家间的生产力差距。今天的贸易崩溃（开放程度更高，差距更小）与两次大战之间的贸易崩溃（IWTC）相当，会使资本存量减少三倍（12%，而不是 4%），终身消费减少四倍（1.58%，而不是 0.37%）。资本积累放大了贸易中断的代价。战时停战促进了西班牙的工业化，而今天的情况恰恰相反。

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THE COST OF TRADE DISRUPTIONS AT DIFFERENT STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT

We study trade disruptions at different stages of development in a two‐country, three‐sector model of Spain and United Kingdom from 1850 to 2000. The impact of trade disruptions depends on trade openness and the productivity gap between countries. A trade collapse today (more openness, less gap) comparable to the Inter‐War Trade Collapse (IWTC) decreases the capital stock threefold (12% instead of 4%) and lifetime consumption fourfold (1.58% instead of 0.37%). Capital accumulation amplifies the cost of trade disruptions. The IWTC promoted Spanish industrialization, while the opposite would be true today.

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来源期刊

International Economic Review ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The International Economic Review was established in 1960 to provide a forum for modern quantitative economics. From its inception, the journal has tried to stimulate economic research around the world by publishing cutting edge papers in many areas of economics, including econometrics, economic theory, macro, and applied economics.