{"title":"太阳黑子周期的峰值斜率和峰值之间有趣的相关性","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s11207-024-02256-4","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (<span> <span>\\(S\\)</span> </span>) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.</p>","PeriodicalId":777,"journal":{"name":"Solar Physics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11207-024-02256-4\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (<span> <span>\\\\(S\\\\)</span> </span>) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":777,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Solar Physics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Solar Physics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"101\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-024-02256-4\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"物理与天体物理\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Solar Physics","FirstCategoryId":"101","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-024-02256-4","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"物理与天体物理","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
An Interesting Correlation Between the Peak Slope and Peak Value of a Sunspot Cycle
Abstract
The maximum slope of the sunspot number during the rising phase of a sunspot cycle has an excellent correlation with the maximum value of the sunspot number during that cycle. This is demonstrated using a Savitzky–Golay filter to both smooth and calculate the derivative of the sunspot-number data. Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number (\(S\)) is used to represent solar activity. The maximum of the slope during the rising phase of each cycle was correlated against the peaks of solar activity. Using three different correlation fits, the average predicted amplitude for Solar Cycle 25 is 130.7 ± 0.5, among the best correlations in solar predictions. A possible explanation for this correlation is given by the similar behavior of a shape function representing the time variation of the sunspot number. This universal function also provides the timing of the solar maximum by the time from the slope maximum to the peak in the function as late 2023 or early 2024. A Hilbert transform gives similar results, which are caused by the dominance of the 11-yr sunspot-cycle period in a Fourier fit of the sunspot number.
期刊介绍:
Solar Physics was founded in 1967 and is the principal journal for the publication of the results of fundamental research on the Sun. The journal treats all aspects of solar physics, ranging from the internal structure of the Sun and its evolution to the outer corona and solar wind in interplanetary space. Papers on solar-terrestrial physics and on stellar research are also published when their results have a direct bearing on our understanding of the Sun.