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引用次数: 0
摘要
我们引入了一个结构向量自回归模型,在该模型中,相互独立的误差遵循倾斜的广义 t 分布,与通常认为的学生 t 分布相比,该分布的灵活性降低了错误规范的风险,并增强了识别能力。由于非高斯性带来的统计识别,经济识别限制的合理性可以得到正式评估。在实证应用中,数据支持在识别美国货币政策冲击时使用叙述性符号限制。与之前的一些文献不同,我们发现实际活动在延迟几个月后对紧缩性货币政策做出了强烈的负面反应。
Statistically identified structural VAR model with potentially skewed and fat-tailed errors
We introduce a structural vector autoregressive model in which the mutually independent errors follow skewed generalized t-distributions, whose flexibility compared with commonly considered Student's t-distributions diminishes the risk of misspecification and strengthens identification. Because of statistical identification due to non-Gaussianity, the plausibility of economic identifying restrictions can be formally assessed. In an empirical application, the data support narrative sign restrictions in identifying the US monetary policy shock. In contrast to some of the previous literature, we find a strong negative response of real activity to contractionary monetary policy after a few months' delay.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.