Jan Karlický, Harald E. Rieder, Peter Huszár, Jan Peiker, Timofei Sukhodolov
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A cautious note advocating the use of ensembles of models and driving data in modeling of regional ozone burdens
We investigate the performance of two widely used chemistry-transport models (CTMs) with different chemical mechanisms in reproducing the ambient maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O\(_{3}\)) burden over Central Europe. We explore a base case setup with boundary conditions (BC) for meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and chemical BC from CAM-Chem as well as effects of alterations in these BC based on global model fields. Our results show that changes in meteorological BC strongly affect the correlation with observations but only marginally affect the model biases, while changes in chemical BC increase model biases while correlation patterns remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, our study highlights that CTM choice (and choice of chemical mechanism) has a similar or even larger impact on MDA8 O\(_{3}\) levels as the impact of altered BC. In summary, our study calls for a multi-model strategy combining different CTM and BC combinations to explore the bandwidth of MDA8 O\(_{3}\) distributions and thus uncertainty in hindcasts and future projections, in analogy to climate studies considering ensemble simulations under the same anthropogenic emissions but with slightly different initial conditions.
期刊介绍:
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.