一份谨慎的说明,提倡在区域臭氧负荷建模中使用模型集合和驱动数据

IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Jan Karlický, Harald E. Rieder, Peter Huszár, Jan Peiker, Timofei Sukhodolov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了具有不同化学机制的两种广泛使用的化学-传输模式(CTM)在再现中欧地区环境最大日均臭氧(MDA8 O\(_{3}\) )负荷方面的性能。我们探讨了一个基本案例设置,其气象边界条件(BC)来自 ERA-Interim 再分析,化学边界条件来自 CAM-Chem,以及基于全球模式场改变这些边界条件的影响。我们的研究结果表明,气象边界条件的改变会严重影响与观测数据的相关性,但对模型偏差的影响很小;而化学边界条件的改变会增加模型偏差,但相关模式基本保持不变。此外,我们的研究还强调,CTM 的选择(以及化学机制的选择)对 MDA8 O\(_{3}\) 水平的影响与改变 BC 的影响相似,甚至更大。总之,我们的研究呼吁结合不同的CTM和BC组合来探索MDA8 O\(_{3}\ 分布的带宽,从而探索后报和未来预测的不确定性,类比气候研究,考虑相同人为排放下的集合模拟,但初始条件略有不同。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

A cautious note advocating the use of ensembles of models and driving data in modeling of regional ozone burdens

A cautious note advocating the use of ensembles of models and driving data in modeling of regional ozone burdens

We investigate the performance of two widely used chemistry-transport models (CTMs) with different chemical mechanisms in reproducing the ambient maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O\(_{3}\)) burden over Central Europe. We explore a base case setup with boundary conditions (BC) for meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and chemical BC from CAM-Chem as well as effects of alterations in these BC based on global model fields. Our results show that changes in meteorological BC strongly affect the correlation with observations but only marginally affect the model biases, while changes in chemical BC increase model biases while correlation patterns remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, our study highlights that CTM choice (and choice of chemical mechanism) has a similar or even larger impact on MDA8 O\(_{3}\) levels as the impact of altered BC. In summary, our study calls for a multi-model strategy combining different CTM and BC combinations to explore the bandwidth of MDA8 O\(_{3}\) distributions and thus uncertainty in hindcasts and future projections, in analogy to climate studies considering ensemble simulations under the same anthropogenic emissions but with slightly different initial conditions.

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来源期刊
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
2.00%
发文量
146
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health. It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes. International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements. This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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