Pritanjali Shende, Zifeng Lu, Elsie M. Sunderland, Asif Qureshi
{"title":"印度燃煤发电厂实施空气污染控制后，细颗粒物和过早死亡率的潜在减少量","authors":"Pritanjali Shende, Zifeng Lu, Elsie M. Sunderland, Asif Qureshi","doi":"10.1007/s11869-024-01503-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) and nitrogen oxide (NO<sub><i>X</i></sub>) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM<sub>2.5</sub> was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $18.1–$604 billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $19.5 billion and/or $32.8 billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. We conclude that policy actions to control air pollution from CFPPs are economically justifiable.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49109,"journal":{"name":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","volume":"17 5","pages":"1061 - 1075"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Potential reductions in fine particulate matter and premature mortality following implementation of air pollution controls on coal-fired power plants in India\",\"authors\":\"Pritanjali Shende, Zifeng Lu, Elsie M. Sunderland, Asif Qureshi\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11869-024-01503-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO<sub>2</sub>) and nitrogen oxide (NO<sub><i>X</i></sub>) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM<sub>2.5</sub> concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM<sub>2.5</sub> was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $18.1–$604 billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $19.5 billion and/or $32.8 billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. 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Potential reductions in fine particulate matter and premature mortality following implementation of air pollution controls on coal-fired power plants in India
Coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) account for > 70% of electricity generation in India, but < 5% of facilities have installed technologies for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOX) removal. Emissions of these pollutants lead to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and an increased risk of premature mortality for exposed populations. Here, we use a nested version of the GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model (0.5° × 0.625° resolution) for India to estimate reductions in PM2.5 concentrations that could have been achieved by implementing existing emission control technologies like flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and/or selective catalytic reduction (SCR). We quantify the associated burden of disease using the integrated exposure response (IER) and global exposure mortality model (GEMM) functions and compare the costs of premature mortality to those for FGD installation. Model simulations for 2010 suggest installation of FGD would have reduced mean annual PM2.5 concentrations across India by 8%, compared to 3% with SCR installation, and 11% with both FGD and SCR. A 7–28% reduction in PM2.5 was simulated for local communities closest to CFPPs (same model grid cell), leading to up to 17% reduction in annual premature mortality. Overall, more than 0.21–0.48 million premature deaths would have been avoided over a 10-year period if FGD had been implemented on all CFPPs, compared to 0.09–0.21 million with SCR and 0.22–0.72 million with both FGD and SCR. Benefits associated with such actions are approximately $18.1–$604 billion USD per year, which is equivalent to ~ 0.44 to 10% of India’s GDP. These results suggest that monetary benefits from avoided premature mortality far outweigh the capital and operational costs of FGD and/or SCR installation of $19.5 billion and/or $32.8 billion per year, respectively. This information is essential because the high costs of installation and operation are often given as reasons for delaying installation and commissioning. We conclude that policy actions to control air pollution from CFPPs are economically justifiable.
期刊介绍：
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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