Lili Liu , Xi Wang , Ou Liu , Yazhi Li , Zhen Jin , Sanyi Tang , Xia Wang
{"title":"新发传染病实际控制策略与最优控制策略的评估与比较:COVID-19 传播模型的启示","authors":"Lili Liu , Xi Wang , Ou Liu , Yazhi Li , Zhen Jin , Sanyi Tang , Xia Wang","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we propose a transmission model to investigate the influence of two control strategies: reducing contact numbers and improving medical resources. We examine these strategies in terms of constant control and time-varying control. Through sensitivity analysis on two reproduction numbers of the model with constant control, we demonstrate that reducing contact numbers is more effective than improving medical resources. Furthermore, these two constant controls significantly influence the peak values and timing of infections. Specifically, intensifying control measures can reduce peak values, albeit at the expense of delaying the peak time. In the model with time-varying control, we initially explore the corresponding optimal control problem and derive the characteristic expression of optimal control. Subsequently, we utilize real data from January 10th to April 12th, 2020, in Wuhan city as a case study to perform parameter estimation by using our proposed improved algorithm. Our findings illustrate that implementing optimal control measures can effectively reduce infections and deaths, and shorten the duration of the epidemic. Then, we numerically explore that implementing control measures promptly and increasing intensity to reduce contact numbers can make actual control be more closer to optimized control. Finally, we utilize the real data from October 31st to November 18th, 2021, in Hebei province as a second case study to validate the feasibility of our proposed suggestions.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000149/pdfft?md5=c46f7b69b9aea2817300c6580de5bc92&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000149-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease: Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model\",\"authors\":\"Lili Liu , Xi Wang , Ou Liu , Yazhi Li , Zhen Jin , Sanyi Tang , Xia Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we propose a transmission model to investigate the influence of two control strategies: reducing contact numbers and improving medical resources. We examine these strategies in terms of constant control and time-varying control. Through sensitivity analysis on two reproduction numbers of the model with constant control, we demonstrate that reducing contact numbers is more effective than improving medical resources. Furthermore, these two constant controls significantly influence the peak values and timing of infections. Specifically, intensifying control measures can reduce peak values, albeit at the expense of delaying the peak time. In the model with time-varying control, we initially explore the corresponding optimal control problem and derive the characteristic expression of optimal control. Subsequently, we utilize real data from January 10th to April 12th, 2020, in Wuhan city as a case study to perform parameter estimation by using our proposed improved algorithm. Our findings illustrate that implementing optimal control measures can effectively reduce infections and deaths, and shorten the duration of the epidemic. Then, we numerically explore that implementing control measures promptly and increasing intensity to reduce contact numbers can make actual control be more closer to optimized control. Finally, we utilize the real data from October 31st to November 18th, 2021, in Hebei province as a second case study to validate the feasibility of our proposed suggestions.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":36831,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-08\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000149/pdfft?md5=c46f7b69b9aea2817300c6580de5bc92&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000149-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000149\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Disease Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000149","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
Valuation and comparison of the actual and optimal control strategy in an emerging infectious disease: Implication from a COVID-19 transmission model
To effectively combat emerging infectious diseases like COVID-19, it is crucial to adopt strict prevention and control measures promptly to effectively contain the spread of the epidemic. In this paper, we propose a transmission model to investigate the influence of two control strategies: reducing contact numbers and improving medical resources. We examine these strategies in terms of constant control and time-varying control. Through sensitivity analysis on two reproduction numbers of the model with constant control, we demonstrate that reducing contact numbers is more effective than improving medical resources. Furthermore, these two constant controls significantly influence the peak values and timing of infections. Specifically, intensifying control measures can reduce peak values, albeit at the expense of delaying the peak time. In the model with time-varying control, we initially explore the corresponding optimal control problem and derive the characteristic expression of optimal control. Subsequently, we utilize real data from January 10th to April 12th, 2020, in Wuhan city as a case study to perform parameter estimation by using our proposed improved algorithm. Our findings illustrate that implementing optimal control measures can effectively reduce infections and deaths, and shorten the duration of the epidemic. Then, we numerically explore that implementing control measures promptly and increasing intensity to reduce contact numbers can make actual control be more closer to optimized control. Finally, we utilize the real data from October 31st to November 18th, 2021, in Hebei province as a second case study to validate the feasibility of our proposed suggestions.
期刊介绍:
Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.