{"title":"预测机器、保险和保护:从另一个角度看人工智能在生产中的作用","authors":"Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb","doi":"10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101307","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decision-making (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decision-making among different organizational actors. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47082,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","volume":"72 ","pages":"Article 101307"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158324000030/pdfft?md5=00aad30244a80b688d52319599c1df9c&pid=1-s2.0-S0889158324000030-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prediction machines, insurance, and protection: An alternative perspective on AI’s role in production\",\"authors\":\"Ajay Agrawal, Joshua S. Gans, Avi Goldfarb\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101307\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decision-making (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decision-making among different organizational actors. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47082,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"volume\":\"72 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101307\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-10\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158324000030/pdfft?md5=00aad30244a80b688d52319599c1df9c&pid=1-s2.0-S0889158324000030-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158324000030\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Japanese and International Economies","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158324000030","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prediction machines, insurance, and protection: An alternative perspective on AI’s role in production
Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decision-making (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decision-making among different organizational actors. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.