{"title":"接触者追踪的数学建模和稳定性分析，以了解其对疾病爆发的影响；对 COVID-19 的应用","authors":"Mohamed Ladib , Aziz Ouhinou , Abdul-Aziz Yakubu","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.010","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic model structured by disease-age which includes general features of contact tracing. The model is fitted to data reported for the early spread of COVID-19 in South Korea, Brazil, and Venezuela. The calibrated values for the contact tracing parameters reflect the order pattern observed in its performance intensity within the three countries. Using the fitted values, we estimate the effective reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and investigate its responses to varied control scenarios of contact tracing. Alongside the positivity of solutions, and a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium are provided.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000101/pdfft?md5=37f442eaf83bd48f623a49fe0ccad1b2&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000101-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19\",\"authors\":\"Mohamed Ladib , Aziz Ouhinou , Abdul-Aziz Yakubu\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.idm.2024.01.010\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic model structured by disease-age which includes general features of contact tracing. The model is fitted to data reported for the early spread of COVID-19 in South Korea, Brazil, and Venezuela. The calibrated values for the contact tracing parameters reflect the order pattern observed in its performance intensity within the three countries. Using the fitted values, we estimate the effective reproduction number <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>e</mi></mrow></msub></math></span> and investigate its responses to varied control scenarios of contact tracing. Alongside the positivity of solutions, and a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium are provided.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":36831,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000101/pdfft?md5=37f442eaf83bd48f623a49fe0ccad1b2&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042724000101-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000101\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Disease Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042724000101","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mathematical modeling of contact tracing and stability analysis to inform its impact on disease outbreaks; an application to COVID-19
We develop a mathematical model to investigate the effect of contact tracing on containing epidemic outbreaks and slowing down the spread of transmissible diseases. We propose a discrete-time epidemic model structured by disease-age which includes general features of contact tracing. The model is fitted to data reported for the early spread of COVID-19 in South Korea, Brazil, and Venezuela. The calibrated values for the contact tracing parameters reflect the order pattern observed in its performance intensity within the three countries. Using the fitted values, we estimate the effective reproduction number and investigate its responses to varied control scenarios of contact tracing. Alongside the positivity of solutions, and a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium are provided.
期刊介绍：
Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.
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