April Miin Miin Chai , D. Kim Rossmo , Julien Chopin , Enzo Yaksic
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The math of serial murder: Understanding victim numbers and series duration
Purpose
This study addresses the complex task of determining the criminal intensity posed by serial killers in a murder series by introducing the Lambda (− rate of killings) to adjust for the time span in a murder series. It focuses on examining factors related to the offender and the crime-commission process that influence victim count in a series. Methods: Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial and a gamma log link function were used to examine factors predicting victim count in a sample of 1258 serial murder cases.
Results
Results showed that offender criminal history did not predict higher levels of Lambda when assessing victim count alone, but did predict a lower value when series length was accounted for. Killing methods were also significant predictors of a higher Lambda but were less useful when only number of victims was considered. Conclusions: Findings highlight the importance of the rate of killings along with total victim count for a more comprehensive understanding of the series' criminal intensity. This approach has implications for law enforcement and criminal profiling as it offers a more detailed perspective on the immediate threat posed by serial killers.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Criminal Justice is an international journal intended to fill the present need for the dissemination of new information, ideas and methods, to both practitioners and academicians in the criminal justice area. The Journal is concerned with all aspects of the criminal justice system in terms of their relationships to each other. Although materials are presented relating to crime and the individual elements of the criminal justice system, the emphasis of the Journal is to tie together the functioning of these elements and to illustrate the effects of their interactions. Articles that reflect the application of new disciplines or analytical methodologies to the problems of criminal justice are of special interest.
Since the purpose of the Journal is to provide a forum for the dissemination of new ideas, new information, and the application of new methods to the problems and functions of the criminal justice system, the Journal emphasizes innovation and creative thought of the highest quality.