Establishment from seed is more important for exotic than for native plant species.

Climate change has initiated movement of both native and non-native (exotic) species across the landscape. Exotic species are hypothesized to establish from seed more readily than comparable native species. We tested the hypothesis that seed limitation is more important for exotic species than native grassland species. We compared seed limitation and invasion resistance over three growing seasons between 18 native and 18 exotic species, grown in both monocultures and mixtures in a field experiment. Half of the plots received a seed mix of the contrasting treatment (i.e., exotic species were seeded into native plots, and native species were seeded into exotic plots), and half served as controls. We found that (1) establishment in this perennial grassland is seed limited, (2) establishment from seed is greater in exotic than native species, and (3) community resistance to seedling establishment was positively related to diversity of extant species, but only in native communities. Native-exotic species diversity and composition differences did not converge over time. Our results imply that native to exotic transformations occur when diversity declines in native vegetation and exotic seeds arrive from adjacent sites, suggesting that managing for high diversity will reduce transformations to exotic dominance.