在加纳模拟扩大疫苗覆盖面和非药物干预措施对 2019 年冠状病毒疾病的健康影响。

IF 4.9 4区 医学 Q1 PARASITOLOGY
Pathogens and Global Health Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-06 DOI:10.1080/20477724.2024.2313787
Sylvia K Ofori, Jessica S Schwind, Kelly L Sullivan, Gerardo Chowell, Benjamin J Cowling, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对加纳社区接触严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)的情况进行的血清流行率评估研究得出结论,截至 2021 年 2 月,人口的免疫力仍然很低。因此,证明提高疫苗覆盖率如何减少与 SARS-CoV-2 传播相关的经济和公共卫生影响非常重要。为此,本研究使用 "易感者-暴露者-无症状者-无症状者-恢复者-死亡者-疫苗接种者 "分区模型模拟加纳 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的传播和公共卫生干预措施的作用。在不同情景下,探讨了疫苗接种率的提高和非药物干预(NPIs)导致的传播率下降对累计感染和避免死亡的影响。采用拉丁超立方抽样-部分秩相关系数(LHS-PRCC)来研究结果的不确定性和对参数的敏感性。模拟结果表明,提高疫苗接种率以达到 50%的覆盖率可避免近 60,000 例死亡和 2,500 万例感染。相比之下,传播系数降低 50%,可避免约 15 万人死亡和 5000 万人感染。LHS-PRCC 结果表明,在疫苗接种率的背景下,累积感染和避免死亡对疫苗接种率、疫苗接种的免疫力减弱率和自然感染的免疫力减弱率最为敏感。这项研究的结果说明了在加纳提高疫苗接种覆盖率和/或通过坚持 NPI 降低传播率对预防 COVID-19 感染和死亡的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Modeling the health impact of increasing vaccine coverage and nonpharmaceutical interventions against coronavirus disease 2019 in Ghana.

Seroprevalence studies assessing community exposure to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Ghana concluded that population-level immunity remained low as of February 2021. Thus, it is important to demonstrate how increasing vaccine coverage reduces the economic and public health impacts associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To that end, this study used a Susceptible-Exposed-Presymptomatic-Symptomatic-Asymptomatic-Recovered-Dead-Vaccinated compartmental model to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission and the role of public health interventions in Ghana. The impact of increasing vaccination rates and decline in transmission rates due to nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on cumulative infections and deaths averted was explored under different scenarios. Latin hypercube sampling-partial rank correlation coefficient (LHS-PRCC) was used to investigate the uncertainty and sensitivity of the outcomes to the parameters. Simulation results suggest that increasing the vaccination rate to achieve 50% coverage was associated with almost 60,000 deaths and 25 million infections averted. In comparison, a 50% decrease in the transmission coefficient was associated with the prevention of about 150,000 deaths and 50 million infections. The LHS-PRCC results indicated that in the context of vaccination rate, cumulative infections and deaths averted were most sensitive to vaccination rate, waning immunity rates from vaccination, and waning immunity from natural infection. This study's findings illustrate the impact of increasing vaccination coverage and/or reducing the transmission rate by NPI adherence in the prevention of COVID-19 infections and deaths in Ghana.

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来源期刊
Pathogens and Global Health
Pathogens and Global Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-PARASITOLOGY
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
0.00%
发文量
60
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Pathogens and Global Health is a journal of infectious disease and public health that focuses on the translation of molecular, immunological, genomics and epidemiological knowledge into control measures for global health threat. The journal publishes original innovative research papers, reviews articles and interviews policy makers and opinion leaders on health subjects of international relevance. It provides a forum for scientific, ethical and political discussion of new innovative solutions for controlling and eradicating infectious diseases, with particular emphasis on those diseases affecting the poorest regions of the world.
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