A machine learning approach for predicting treatment response of hyponatremia

Hyponatremia leads to severe central nervous system disorders and requires immediate treatment in some cases. However, a rapid increase in serum sodium (s-Na) concentration could cause osmotic demyelination syndrome. To achieve a safety hyponatremia treatment, we develop a prediction model of s-Na concentration using a machine learning. Among the 341 and 47 patients admitted to two tertiary hospitals for hyponatremia treatment (s-Na <130 mEq/L), those who were admitted to the general unit with urine sodium <20 mEq/L or treated with desmopressin were excluded. Ultimately, 74 and 15 patients (342 and 146 6-hourly datasets) were included in the learning and validation data, respectively. We trained the prediction model using three regression algorithms for shallow machine learning to predict s-Na every 6 h during treatment with the data of patients with hyponatremia (median s-Na: 112.5 mEq/L; range: 110.0–116.8 mEq/L) from one hospital. The model was validated externally using the data of patients with hyponatremia (median s-Na: 117.0 mEq/L; range: 112.9–120.0 mEq/L) from another hospital. Using 5–7 predictors (water intake, sodium intake, potassium intake, urine volume, s-Na concentration, serum potassium concentration, serum chloride concentration), the support vector regression model showed the best performance overall (root mean square error = 0.05396; R² = 0.92), followed by the linear regression and regression tree models. The predicted s-Na levels, using explainable machine learning algorithms and clinically accessible parameters, correlated well with the actual levels. Thus, our model could be applied to the treatment of hyponatremia in clinical practice.