Does City Shape Affect China's Economic Development?

This paper constructs a general equilibrium spatial urban model and measures city geometric compactness using the patch-shape index based on evidence from satellite imagery and basic vector maps of China. It adopts the ordinary least squares and instrumental variable approaches to examine the effect of city shape on the urban development of 279 Chinese cities at or above the prefecture level. The empirical results show that there was a significant negative correlation between city shape and economic outcomes. Specifically, every 1 percentage point increase in the patch-shape index led to a decrease in city-scale GDP by 0.009 percent, housing prices by 0.044 percent, and wages by 0.024 percent. More compact urban layouts attracted an inflow of households and firms, stimulated city economic growth, and were associated with increased housing prices and wage rates. The paper considers the cities' initial conditions, trends in population changes (expanding, shrinking, and stagnant cities), and geographic factors, and finds that the results are robust. An array of policy implications can be drawn from the research.