Can laboratory HIV and infectious syphilis data inform future pre-exposure prophylaxis use in women in Ontario, Canada?

Objectives: Infectious syphilis has been proposed as an indication for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in women. We explored how many women experienced HIV seroconversion after being diagnosed with syphilis in Ontario between 20 April 2010 and 31 December 2021.

Methods: Through deterministic linkage of laboratory data at the Public Health Ontario laboratory, which conducts the vast majority of syphilis and HIV testing in Ontario, we quantified the number of females with positive syphilis diagnoses who subsequently exhibited HIV seroconversion between April 2010 and December 2021. New HIV cases were identified by diagnostic serology or HIV viral load test result of ≥20 copies/mL at least 60 days after the positive syphilis test. We report aggregate numbers of women with new laboratory evidence of HIV infection after their first positive syphilis test.

Results: Among 7957 women with positive syphilis tests during the study period, 6554 (82.4%) had linkable HIV serology tests and 133 (1.7%) ever tested HIV positive. With further linkage to viral load data, the number of women who ever had laboratory evidence of HIV infection increased to 184 (2.3%). However, when restricting to women whose first positive HIV test or HIV viral load occurred after their first positive syphilis test, this number decreased to 34 (0.4%). The median (IQR) time between the positive syphilis test and the first laboratory evidence of HIV was 551 (IQR=226-1159) days.

Conclusion: Although it is clinically appropriate to recommend HIV PrEP to women with syphilis, Ontario surveillance data suggest that the population-level impact of this strategy on the HIV epidemic in Ontario would have been modest during this 11-year period. Future studies should explore additional ways of prioritising women for PrEP.