{"title":"考虑犯罪数量的影响，测试地域特征分析的准确性","authors":"Aiko Hanayama, Shumpei Haginoya, Hiroki Kuraishi","doi":"10.1002/jip.1625","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The present research compared geographic profiling (GP) methods, including spatial distribution strategies (SDS) and probability distance strategies (PDS), to account for the effect of the number of crimes on the accuracy of GP. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among three burglar groups (a total of 333 offenders) with different sizes of crimes (1–5, 6–15 and 16 or more) committed before arrest showed that the accuracy decreased in a group with a larger size of crime. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among the number of crimes (3–10) using 150 offenders who committed 10 or more crimes showed a slight improvement in the accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. In addition, the PDS (vs. SDS) showed a higher accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. The findings encourage practitioners to use the PDS and research implications are discussed.</p>","PeriodicalId":46397,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Testing the accuracy of geographical profiling considering the effect of the number of crimes\",\"authors\":\"Aiko Hanayama, Shumpei Haginoya, Hiroki Kuraishi\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/jip.1625\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The present research compared geographic profiling (GP) methods, including spatial distribution strategies (SDS) and probability distance strategies (PDS), to account for the effect of the number of crimes on the accuracy of GP. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among three burglar groups (a total of 333 offenders) with different sizes of crimes (1–5, 6–15 and 16 or more) committed before arrest showed that the accuracy decreased in a group with a larger size of crime. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among the number of crimes (3–10) using 150 offenders who committed 10 or more crimes showed a slight improvement in the accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. In addition, the PDS (vs. SDS) showed a higher accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. The findings encourage practitioners to use the PDS and research implications are discussed.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":46397,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1625\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jip.1625","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究比较了地理侧写（GP）方法，包括空间分布策略（SDS）和概率距离策略（PDS），以考虑犯罪数量对 GP 准确性的影响。在被捕前实施不同规模犯罪（1-5 起、6-15 起和 16 起或以上）的三个盗窃团伙（共 333 名罪犯）中比较 GP 方法的准确性，结果显示，犯罪规模越大的团伙准确性越低。使用 150 名犯罪次数在 10 次或以上的罪犯，比较不同犯罪次数（3-10 次）的 GP 方法的准确性，结果显示，随着犯罪次数的增加，准确性略有提高。此外，随着犯罪数量的增加，PDS（相对于 SDS）的准确性也有所提高。研究结果鼓励从业人员使用 PDS，并讨论了其研究意义。
Testing the accuracy of geographical profiling considering the effect of the number of crimes
The present research compared geographic profiling (GP) methods, including spatial distribution strategies (SDS) and probability distance strategies (PDS), to account for the effect of the number of crimes on the accuracy of GP. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among three burglar groups (a total of 333 offenders) with different sizes of crimes (1–5, 6–15 and 16 or more) committed before arrest showed that the accuracy decreased in a group with a larger size of crime. Comparing the accuracy of GP methods among the number of crimes (3–10) using 150 offenders who committed 10 or more crimes showed a slight improvement in the accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. In addition, the PDS (vs. SDS) showed a higher accuracy with the increasing number of crimes. The findings encourage practitioners to use the PDS and research implications are discussed.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Investigative Psychology and Offender Profiling (JIP-OP) is an international journal of behavioural science contributions to criminal and civil investigations, for researchers and practitioners, also exploring the legal and jurisprudential implications of psychological and related aspects of all forms of investigation. Investigative Psychology is rapidly developing worldwide. It is a newly established, interdisciplinary area of research and application, concerned with the systematic, scientific examination of all those aspects of psychology and the related behavioural and social sciences that may be relevant to criminal.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
