巧合:一个具有解释和预测未来两种含义的词

IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL
Margaret S. Archer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文将批判现实主义形态发生学模型与尼古拉斯-雷舍尔(Nicholas Rescher)的见解联系起来,论证了我们的预测总是受制于偶然性和或然性,但对于实践和科学探究来说却又是不可避免的。偶然性源于世界因果关系的开放性,包括我们自身决策的因果关系开放性。另一方面,正如雷舍尔所指出的,如果没有一定程度的稳定性,人类的互动就会失败,这使得形态宿主关系的预言即使不是规律性的,至少在实际意义上也是可预测的。造成形态失调的也不仅仅是习惯。人类行为主体努力反思,以形态静止的方式生产他们通过互动创造的人类产品。除了个体行动者之外,从批判现实主义的角度来看,结构和文化的综合影响至少在短期内倾向于可靠的可预测结果,即使不是规律性的结果。在此背景下,本文思考了巧合在社会理论中的双重作用,一方面表明偶然性,另一方面表明根据积极的因果机制,什么通常会同时发生。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Coincidence: A word with two meanings for explaining and predicting the future

Connecting the critical realist morphogenetic model to insights made by Nicholas Rescher, this paper argues that our predictions are always subject to chance and contingency but nevertheless ineluctably useful for both practical and scientific inquiry. Contingency results from the causal openness of the world, including the causal openness of our own decision-making. On the other hand, as Rescher notes, human interaction would fail without a degree of stability, which makes the predictions of morphostatic relations if not lawlike at least predictable in a practical sense. Nor is it just habit that makes for morphostasis. Human agents strive reflectively to produce in morphostatic ways the human goods they have created by their interaction. And beyond individual actors, there is, from the critical realist point of view, the combined effects of structure and culture inclining at least in the short-term to reliably predictable if not lawlike outcomes. With that background, the paper reflects on the dual role of coincidence in social theory, on the one hand signalling contingency and the other on what, according to the active causal mechanisms, generally co-occur.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour publishes original theoretical and methodological articles that examine the links between social structures and human agency embedded in behavioural practices. The Journal is truly unique in focusing first and foremost on social behaviour, over and above any disciplinary or local framing of such behaviour. In so doing, it embraces a range of theoretical orientations and, by requiring authors to write for a wide audience, the Journal is distinctively interdisciplinary and accessible to readers world-wide in the fields of psychology, sociology and philosophy.
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