Urbanization, civil conflict, and the severity of food insecurity in Africa

The objective of this article is to examine the impact of urbanization and civil conflicts on the severity of food insecurity for a panel of 43 African countries over the period 2000–2020. Subsequently, the heterogeneous choice models approach was used for the estimations. The results show that urbanization and civil conflict increase food insecurity. The parallel line probability hypothesis results specifically show that a one-unit increase in urban growth rate increases the probability of belonging to a high-risk food insecurity category by more than .6 times. Furthermore, the results show that the impacts of urbanization on food insecurity are modulated by civil conflicts in Africa leading to the net effect of .692. This corresponds to the policy threshold of 2.315 when the net positive effect is canceled out. Therefore, this study strongly recommends the need for African economies to develop urban agriculture while controlling the pace of urbanization in order to reduce food insecurity and avoid possible civil wars.

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