{"title":"贷方规避风险的国家或有债务","authors":"Gonçalo Pina","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.01.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>State-contingent debt has the potential to eliminate costly debt crises. Yet, markets for this type of debt remain essentially closed. This paper uses a simple model to show conditions under which specialized risk-averse foreign lenders prefer non-contingent debt to state-contingent debt. Borrowers always prefer state-contingent debt as non-contingent debt increases the probability of default and reduces investment and output. However, lenders face a trade-off between the total surplus generated by the investment project and the share that they appropriate through the financial trade. Even though total surplus is smaller with non-contingent debt when compared to state-contingent debt, the share of the surplus that goes to lenders is larger under non-contingent debt. The paper then characterizes environments where state-contingent debt is more likely to be preferred by both borrowers and lenders under risk aversion.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":"94 ","pages":"Pages 180-189"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"State-contingent debt with lender risk aversion\",\"authors\":\"Gonçalo Pina\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.qref.2024.01.009\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>State-contingent debt has the potential to eliminate costly debt crises. Yet, markets for this type of debt remain essentially closed. This paper uses a simple model to show conditions under which specialized risk-averse foreign lenders prefer non-contingent debt to state-contingent debt. Borrowers always prefer state-contingent debt as non-contingent debt increases the probability of default and reduces investment and output. However, lenders face a trade-off between the total surplus generated by the investment project and the share that they appropriate through the financial trade. Even though total surplus is smaller with non-contingent debt when compared to state-contingent debt, the share of the surplus that goes to lenders is larger under non-contingent debt. The paper then characterizes environments where state-contingent debt is more likely to be preferred by both borrowers and lenders under risk aversion.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47962,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance\",\"volume\":\"94 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 180-189\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000152\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924000152","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
State-contingent debt has the potential to eliminate costly debt crises. Yet, markets for this type of debt remain essentially closed. This paper uses a simple model to show conditions under which specialized risk-averse foreign lenders prefer non-contingent debt to state-contingent debt. Borrowers always prefer state-contingent debt as non-contingent debt increases the probability of default and reduces investment and output. However, lenders face a trade-off between the total surplus generated by the investment project and the share that they appropriate through the financial trade. Even though total surplus is smaller with non-contingent debt when compared to state-contingent debt, the share of the surplus that goes to lenders is larger under non-contingent debt. The paper then characterizes environments where state-contingent debt is more likely to be preferred by both borrowers and lenders under risk aversion.
期刊介绍:
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance (QREF) attracts and publishes high quality manuscripts that cover topics in the areas of economics, financial economics and finance. The subject matter may be theoretical, empirical or policy related. Emphasis is placed on quality, originality, clear arguments, persuasive evidence, intelligent analysis and clear writing. At least one Special Issue is published per year. These issues have guest editors, are devoted to a single theme and the papers have well known authors. In addition we pride ourselves in being able to provide three to four article "Focus" sections in most of our issues.