关于有效制裁的设计:禁止向俄罗斯出口的案例*

IF 4.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter, Muhammed A Yıldırım
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们在 Baqaee 和 Farhi(2019,2021)的基础上,推导出一个有理论依据的标准,允许在 6 位数 HS 产品 ∼5000 的水平上有针对性地禁止向受制裁国家出口。该标准意味着受制裁国的成本与制裁方的市场份额呈高度凸性关系。因此,在广泛的国家联盟中协调出口禁令会带来巨大收益。将我们的结果应用于俄罗斯时发现,一旦我们以俄罗斯从参与国的产品进口总量为条件,欧盟和美国针对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰所实施的制裁与我们的论点并无系统性关联。我们讨论了造成这些差异的原因,然后对出口禁令进行了定量评估,结果表明:(i) 出口禁令非常有效,俄罗斯的福利损失通常是制裁国的 100 倍;(ii) 根据我们的标准改进制裁的协调和定向制裁,可以使俄罗斯的成本增加约 80%,而制裁国几乎没有额外成本;(iii) 通过扩大受制裁产品的范围,俄罗斯的成本还有进一步增加的空间。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to russia*
We build on Baqaee and Farhi (2019, 2021) and derive a theoretically-grounded criterion that allows targeting bans on exports to a sanctioned country at the level of ∼5000 6-digit HS products. The criterion implies that the costs to the sanctioned country are highly convex in the market share of the sanctioning parties. Hence, there are large benefits from coordinating export bans among a broad coalition of countries. Applying our results to Russia reveals that sanctions imposed by the EU and the US in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not systematically related to our arguments once we condition on Russia’s total imports of a product from participating countries. We discuss drivers of these differences, and then provide a quantitative evaluation of the export bans to show that (i) they are very effective with the welfare loss typically ∼100 times larger for Russia than for the sanctioners; (ii) improved coordination of the sanctions and targeting sanctions based on our criterion allows to increase the costs to Russia by about 80% with little to no extra cost to the sanctioners; and (iii) there is scope for increasing the cost to Russia further by expanding the set of sanctioned products.
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来源期刊
Economic Policy
Economic Policy ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: Economic Policy provides timely and authoritative analyses of the choices confronting policymakers. The subject matter ranges from the study of how individual markets can and should work to the broadest interactions in the world economy. Economic Policy features: Analysis of key issues as they emerge Views of top international economists Frontier thinking without technical jargon Wide-reaching coverage of worldwide policy debate
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