{"title":"新发传染病的感染死亡与社会经济成本之间的权衡","authors":"Akira Watanabe, Hiroyuki Matsuda","doi":"10.1002/1438-390x.12177","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"COVID‐19, caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2), is an emerging infectious disease (EID) with a relatively high infectivity and mortality rate. During the state of emergency announced by the Japanese government in the spring of 2020, citizens were requested to stay home, and the number of infected people was drastically reduced without a legally‐binding lockdown. It is well‐acknowledged that there is a trade‐off between maintaining economic activity and preventing the spread of infectious diseases. We aimed to reduce the total loss caused by the epidemic of an EID like COVID‐19 in the present study. We focused on early and late stages of the epidemic and proposed a framework to reduce the total loss resulted from the damage by infection and the cost for the countermeasure. Mathematical epidemic models were used to estimate the effect of interventions on the number of deaths by infection. The total loss was converted into the monetary base and different policies were compared. In the early stage, we calculated the damage by infection when behavioral restrictions were implemented. The favorable intensity of the intervention depended on the basic reproduction number, infection fatality rate, and the economic impact. In the late stage, we calculated indicators and showed it depended on the ratio of the cost to maintain the hospitalization system to the monetary loss per deaths caused by infection to determine which strategy should be adopted.","PeriodicalId":54597,"journal":{"name":"Population Ecology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The trade‐off between deaths by infection and socio‐economic costs in the emerging infectious disease\",\"authors\":\"Akira Watanabe, Hiroyuki Matsuda\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/1438-390x.12177\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"COVID‐19, caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2), is an emerging infectious disease (EID) with a relatively high infectivity and mortality rate. During the state of emergency announced by the Japanese government in the spring of 2020, citizens were requested to stay home, and the number of infected people was drastically reduced without a legally‐binding lockdown. It is well‐acknowledged that there is a trade‐off between maintaining economic activity and preventing the spread of infectious diseases. We aimed to reduce the total loss caused by the epidemic of an EID like COVID‐19 in the present study. We focused on early and late stages of the epidemic and proposed a framework to reduce the total loss resulted from the damage by infection and the cost for the countermeasure. Mathematical epidemic models were used to estimate the effect of interventions on the number of deaths by infection. The total loss was converted into the monetary base and different policies were compared. In the early stage, we calculated the damage by infection when behavioral restrictions were implemented. The favorable intensity of the intervention depended on the basic reproduction number, infection fatality rate, and the economic impact. In the late stage, we calculated indicators and showed it depended on the ratio of the cost to maintain the hospitalization system to the monetary loss per deaths caused by infection to determine which strategy should be adopted.\",\"PeriodicalId\":54597,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Population Ecology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Population Ecology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12177\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ECOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Population Ecology","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1002/1438-390x.12177","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
The trade‐off between deaths by infection and socio‐economic costs in the emerging infectious disease
COVID‐19, caused by the novel coronavirus (SARS‐CoV‐2), is an emerging infectious disease (EID) with a relatively high infectivity and mortality rate. During the state of emergency announced by the Japanese government in the spring of 2020, citizens were requested to stay home, and the number of infected people was drastically reduced without a legally‐binding lockdown. It is well‐acknowledged that there is a trade‐off between maintaining economic activity and preventing the spread of infectious diseases. We aimed to reduce the total loss caused by the epidemic of an EID like COVID‐19 in the present study. We focused on early and late stages of the epidemic and proposed a framework to reduce the total loss resulted from the damage by infection and the cost for the countermeasure. Mathematical epidemic models were used to estimate the effect of interventions on the number of deaths by infection. The total loss was converted into the monetary base and different policies were compared. In the early stage, we calculated the damage by infection when behavioral restrictions were implemented. The favorable intensity of the intervention depended on the basic reproduction number, infection fatality rate, and the economic impact. In the late stage, we calculated indicators and showed it depended on the ratio of the cost to maintain the hospitalization system to the monetary loss per deaths caused by infection to determine which strategy should be adopted.
期刊介绍:
Population Ecology, formerly known as Researches on Population Ecology launched in Dec 1952, is the official journal of the Society of Population Ecology. Population Ecology publishes original research articles and reviews (including invited reviews) on various aspects of population ecology, from the individual to the community level. Among the specific fields included are population dynamics and distribution, evolutionary ecology, ecological genetics, theoretical models, conservation biology, agroecosystem studies, and bioresource management. Manuscripts should contain new results of empirical and/or theoretical investigations concerning facts, patterns, processes, mechanisms or concepts of population ecology; those purely descriptive in nature are not suitable for this journal. All manuscripts are reviewed anonymously by two or more referees, and the final editorial decision is made by the Chief Editor or an Associate Editor based on the referees'' evaluations.