问题顺序对不确定性判断的影响

IF 1.6 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Rafael Novella , Ericka G. Rascón Ramirez
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引用次数: 0

摘要

有关不确定情况下的判断(如预期和风险偏好)的数据越来越多地被用于预测和了解人们的决策。然而,人们对此类测量的诱导对问卷设计的敏感程度知之甚少。通过在智利进行的一项调查实验,我们评估了顺序对期望和风险偏好测量的影响。为此,我们随机改变了问卷模块的位置。我们的研究结果表明,对未来工作、学业和福利相关结果的预期以及风险偏好对顺序效应很敏感。当人们在被问及过去的经历时,他们对未来结果的预期会更悲观,风险规避程度也会更高。我们还观察到,将非认知技能问题安排在预期和风险偏好问题之前,会产生方差更小的数据,这表明测量结果更可靠。事实上,通过在学校教育和劳动力市场结果预测模型中使用这些测量指标,我们发现当我们的测量指标在非认知技能问题之前进行时,对未来学校教育和劳动力市场结果的预测能力更高。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Question-order effects on judgements under uncertainty

Data on judgements under uncertainty (e.g., expectations and risk preferences) have been increasingly used to predict and understand people's decision making. However, little is known about how sensitive the elicitation of such measures is to questionnaire design. Using a survey experiment conducted in Chile, we assess order effects on the elicitation of expectations and risk preference measures. To do so, we randomly alter the position of questionnaire modules. Our findings suggest that expectations about future work, school, and wellbeing-related outcomes, as well as risk preferences, are sensitive to order effects. When people are asked about their past experiences immediately before the elicitation of such measures, more pessimistic expectations about future outcomes are reported, as well as higher levels of risk aversion. We also observed that positioning non-cognitive skill questions immediately before the elicitation of expectations and risk preferences generates data with lower variance suggesting more reliable measurements. Indeed, using these measures in prediction models of schooling and labour market outcomes, we find higher predictive power of future schooling and labour market outcomes when our measures are preceded by non-cognitive skills questions.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.60
自引率
12.50%
发文量
113
审稿时长
83 days
期刊介绍: The Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly the Journal of Socio-Economics) welcomes submissions that deal with various economic topics but also involve issues that are related to other social sciences, especially psychology, or use experimental methods of inquiry. Thus, contributions in behavioral economics, experimental economics, economic psychology, and judgment and decision making are especially welcome. The journal is open to different research methodologies, as long as they are relevant to the topic and employed rigorously. Possible methodologies include, for example, experiments, surveys, empirical work, theoretical models, meta-analyses, case studies, and simulation-based analyses. Literature reviews that integrate findings from many studies are also welcome, but they should synthesize the literature in a useful manner and provide substantial contribution beyond what the reader could get by simply reading the abstracts of the cited papers. In empirical work, it is important that the results are not only statistically significant but also economically significant. A high contribution-to-length ratio is expected from published articles and therefore papers should not be unnecessarily long, and short articles are welcome. Articles should be written in a manner that is intelligible to our generalist readership. Book reviews are generally solicited but occasionally unsolicited reviews will also be published. Contact the Book Review Editor for related inquiries.
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