长江流域 2020 年和 1998 年特大梅雨洪水事件的水汽来源差异

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Chi Zhang , Qiuhong Tang , Yang Zhao , Deliang Chen , Jinchuan Huang , Yubo Liu , Xu Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

1998 年和 2020 年的两次历史性梅雨事件袭击了长江流域(YRV),对社会经济造成了灾难性的破坏。通过利用水资源核算模式-2Layers和ERA5再分析追踪极端降水事件的水汽供应,揭示了哺育长江流域降水的水汽来源及其差异。从气候学角度看,西南季风通道是最重要的水汽通道,印度洋和中南半岛分别贡献了长三角降水的 45% 和 16%。在两次 "梅雨 "过程中,印度洋和中印半岛是水汽供应过多的主要地区,它们合计提供了 65% 以上的额外降水。1998 年和 2020 年的水汽供应异常呈现出 "西增东减 "的强烈空间格局。当 YRV 降水偏多时,水汽主要来自西南地区,西北太平洋的水汽贡献相对较小。我们还发现,西太平洋副热带高压的强度是一个主要的影响因素,它解释了 1991-2020 年间 YRV 降水量变化的 47%。当副热带高压增强时,在热带西北太平洋周围的对流层中低层会形成异常反气旋。在其西北侧,YRV 上风区的强西南风有助于通过西南季风带来更多水汽。在下风向,它抑制了来自西北太平洋的水汽供应。与 2020 年相比,1998 年印度支那半岛和长三角上空较干燥,导致长三角降水的水汽供应量大幅减少(29%),从而导致 1998 年梅雨事件的强度减弱。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Moisture source differences between the 2020 and 1998 super Meiyu-flood events in the Yangtze River Valley

Two historic Meiyu events in 1998 and 2020 hit the Yangtze River Valley (YRV), causing catastrophic damage to the socio-economy. By tracking moisture supplies to the extreme precipitation events using Water Accounting Model-2Layers and ERA5 reanalysis, the moisture origins and their differences in feeding the YRV precipitation were revealed. Climatologically, the southwest monsoon channel is the most important moisture channel with the Indian Ocean contributing ∼45% and the Indo-China Peninsula contributing ∼16% of the YRV precipitation. During the two super Meiyu events, the Indian Ocean and the Indo-China Peninsula dominated the excessive moisture supply, which together contributed more than 65% of the extra precipitation. Moisture supply anomalies in 1998 and 2020 showed a robust spatial pattern of “west increase-east decrease”. When the YRV precipitation is higher than the normal, moisture mainly comes from the southwest sources, and moisture contribution from the northwestern Pacific is relatively small. We also found that the intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high is a major influencing factor that explained ∼47% of the YRV precipitation variation during 1991–2020. When it intensifies, an anomalous anticyclone is formed in the mid-lower troposphere around the tropical Northwest Pacific. In its northwestern flank, a strong southwesterly in the upwind of the YRV helps bring in more moisture through the southwest monsoon. In the downwind, it inhibits moisture supply from the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Compared with 2020, a drier condition over Indo-China Peninsula and YRV in 1998 led to a substantially less (∼29%) moisture supply to the YRV precipitation, resulting in a less strong Meiyu event in 1998.

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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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