对高速公路单车碰撞事故中安装和未安装安全气囊时驾驶员受伤严重程度的多年统计分析

IF 12.5 1区 工程技术 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Richard Dzinyela , Nawaf Alnawmasi , Emmanuel Kofi Adanu , Bahar Dadashova , Dominique Lord , Fred Mannering
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文试图找出影响单车高速公路碰撞事故中安全气囊展开和未展开安全气囊时驾驶员受伤严重程度的因素。伤害严重程度模型采用随机参数 logit 模型进行估计,并考虑了随机参数的均值和方差可能存在的异质性,以考虑未观察到的异质性。模型估算使用了阿拉巴马州 COVID 大流行前三年(2016 年、2017 年和 2018 年)的车祸数据。使用所有年份的数据对模型进行了估算,但模型表述允许估算参数因年份而异。模型估计结果表明,相对于未展开安全气囊的碰撞事故(这些碰撞事故往往与更大的能量传递和不同碰撞事故之间能量传递的差异有关),展开安全气囊的碰撞事故(这些碰撞事故往往与低速撞击有关,不同碰撞事故之间能量传递的差异较小)存在根本性差异。此外,大多数解释变量对造成的伤害严重程度的影响随时间变化很大。但是,肩带和腹带的使用、驾驶员性别、较新的车型、乘用车类型、城市碰撞、与鹿的碰撞、与树木的碰撞和与缆索障碍物的碰撞等解释变量在安全气囊或非安全气囊部署模型中,或在这两种模型中,并不随时间的推移而发生显著变化。本研究的结果表明,先进的安全气囊系统有可能通过缩小男女之间的伤害严重程度差距来大幅提高安全性,同时还需要进一步探索驾驶员行为随时间的演变,因为驾驶员行为最终决定了车辆和高速公路安全系统持续改进的有效性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A multi-year statistical analysis of driver injury severities in single-vehicle freeway crashes with and without airbags deployed

This paper seeks to identify factors that influence driver injury severities in single-vehicle freeway crashes when airbags deployed and when airbags did not deploy. Injury-severity models were estimated using random parameters logit models with consideration given to possible heterogeneity in means and variances of the random parameters to account for unobserved heterogeneity. Three years of pre-COVID pandemic crash data (2016, 2017 and 2018) from the state of Alabama were used in the model estimations. Models were estimated with data from all years, but the model formulation allowed the estimated parameters to vary by year. The model estimation results show that there are fundamental differences in crashes where airbags deployed (which tend to be crashes associated with greater energy transfers and variance in such transfers across crashes) relative to crashes where airbags did not deploy (which tend to be crashes associated with lower-speed impacts with less variance in energy transfers across crash observations). Moreover, the effects of most of the explanatory variables on resulting injury severities were found to vary significantly over time. However, explanatory variables such as shoulder and lap belt use, driver gender, newer model year vehicles, passenger car vehicle types, urban-located crashes, collisions with deer, collisions with trees and collisions with cable barriers did not vary significantly over time in either the airbag or non-airbag deployed models, or both. The findings of this study suggest that there is a potential for advances airbag systems to substantially improve safety by closing the injury-severity gap observed between men and women in particular, and that there is a need to further explore the evolution of driver behavior over time, which ultimately determines the effectiveness of ongoing improvements in vehicle and highway safety systems.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
22.10
自引率
34.10%
发文量
35
审稿时长
24 days
期刊介绍: Analytic Methods in Accident Research is a journal that publishes articles related to the development and application of advanced statistical and econometric methods in studying vehicle crashes and other accidents. The journal aims to demonstrate how these innovative approaches can provide new insights into the factors influencing the occurrence and severity of accidents, thereby offering guidance for implementing appropriate preventive measures. While the journal primarily focuses on the analytic approach, it also accepts articles covering various aspects of transportation safety (such as road, pedestrian, air, rail, and water safety), construction safety, and other areas where human behavior, machine failures, or system failures lead to property damage or bodily harm.
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