{"title":"优先考虑信念和形成期望","authors":"Timo Ehrig","doi":"10.1111/emre.12602","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"How do expectations for novel opportunities—like Amazon from the perspective of 1998—come about? To form such expectations, decision-makers need to derive plausible conclusions that go beyond the available information by interpreting it with the help of theories. I explain why asymmetric expectations among rational individuals can exist, even when information is symmetric: Differences in the willingness to question of (defined as “a preference ordering over”) elementary theoretical explanations of the novelty bring about heterogeneity in final expectations. I further argue that one source of better expectations is the skill to choose the relative willingness to question beliefs and thus the skill to integrate theories. I identify the skills of decision-makers to detect and resolve inconsistencies and to decide when to give up beliefs again as sources of advantages in forming expectations.","PeriodicalId":47372,"journal":{"name":"European Management Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Prioritizing beliefs and the formation of expectations\",\"authors\":\"Timo Ehrig\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/emre.12602\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"How do expectations for novel opportunities—like Amazon from the perspective of 1998—come about? To form such expectations, decision-makers need to derive plausible conclusions that go beyond the available information by interpreting it with the help of theories. I explain why asymmetric expectations among rational individuals can exist, even when information is symmetric: Differences in the willingness to question of (defined as “a preference ordering over”) elementary theoretical explanations of the novelty bring about heterogeneity in final expectations. I further argue that one source of better expectations is the skill to choose the relative willingness to question beliefs and thus the skill to integrate theories. I identify the skills of decision-makers to detect and resolve inconsistencies and to decide when to give up beliefs again as sources of advantages in forming expectations.\",\"PeriodicalId\":47372,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"European Management Review\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"European Management Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"91\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1111/emre.12602\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"MANAGEMENT\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Management Review","FirstCategoryId":"91","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1111/emre.12602","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MANAGEMENT","Score":null,"Total":0}
Prioritizing beliefs and the formation of expectations
How do expectations for novel opportunities—like Amazon from the perspective of 1998—come about? To form such expectations, decision-makers need to derive plausible conclusions that go beyond the available information by interpreting it with the help of theories. I explain why asymmetric expectations among rational individuals can exist, even when information is symmetric: Differences in the willingness to question of (defined as “a preference ordering over”) elementary theoretical explanations of the novelty bring about heterogeneity in final expectations. I further argue that one source of better expectations is the skill to choose the relative willingness to question beliefs and thus the skill to integrate theories. I identify the skills of decision-makers to detect and resolve inconsistencies and to decide when to give up beliefs again as sources of advantages in forming expectations.
期刊介绍:
The European Management Review is an international journal dedicated to advancing the understanding of management in private and public sector organizations through empirical investigation and theoretical analysis. The European Management Review provides an international forum for dialogue between researchers, thereby improving the understanding of the nature of management in different settings and promoting the transfer of research results to management practice. Although one of the European Management Review"s aims is to foster the general advancement of management scholarship among European scholars and/or those academics interested in European management issues.