"我宁愿不投票建立拉丁美洲无效投票与公众抗议之间的缺失联系

IF 1.7 2区 社会学 Q1 AREA STUDIES
Alberto Lioy
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引用次数: 0

摘要

虽然无效投票通常被视为选举背景下的抗议行为,但其与实际政治抗议的关联性尚未得到实证证明。有关该主题的研究相对较少,这可能是由于无效投票作为正式和非正式政治姿态的混合性质。拉丁美洲公众抗议活动的事件数据新颖易得,可检验抗议活动的发生是否与废票和白票的变化有关。本研究使用了一个适当的动态回归模型,涵盖了 1979-2021 年期间拉丁美洲立法选举之间 148 个间隔期的变化,发现反政府抗议的出现与无效投票的激增(反之亦然)之间存在密切联系。在经济条件相同的情况下,这种关系依然存在,并且由于执政党没有更替而得到加强。相反,工人罢工的出现似乎可以替代这种行为,当民主恶化时,选民也会选择这种行为,而腐败对无效投票没有独立的影响。总之,这项工作的发现有望将无效投票的研究议程推向一个新的方向,而此前由于缺乏拟合数据,这方面的研究尚未展开。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
“I Would Prefer Not To”: Establishing the Missing Link between Invalid Voting and Public Protest in Latin America

While invalid voting is often treated as protest behavior in an electoral context, its association with actual political protests has not yet been empirically demonstrated. The relative scarcity of research on the topic is likely due to the hybrid nature of invalid voting as a both formal and informal political gesture. The novel availability of event-based data for public protests in Latin America allows for testing whether their occurrence is connected with changes in spoiled and blank ballots. Using an appropriate dynamic regression model covering variations in the 148 intervals between Latin American legislative elections in the 1979–2021 period, this study finds a strong connection between the emergence of antigovernment protests and surges in invalid voting (and vice versa). This relationship still holds at parity of economic conditions and it is reinforced by a lack of alternation in the party of power. Conversely, the appearance of workers’ strikes appears to work as a substitute for this behavior, which is also chosen by voters when democracy deteriorates, while corruption has no independent impact on invalid voting. Overall this work’s findings promise to send the research agenda on invalid voting in a new direction, previously unexplored because of an absence of fitting data.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
5.30%
发文量
44
期刊介绍: Latin American Politics and Society publishes the highest-quality original social science scholarship on Latin America. The Editorial Board, comprising leading U.S., Latin American, and European scholars, is dedicated to challenging prevailing orthodoxies and promoting innovative theoretical and methodological perspectives on the states, societies, economies, and international relations of the Americas in a globalizing world.
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