Transferability of Lessons From Program Evaluations: Iron Laws, Hiding Hands and the Evidence Ecosystem.

Assessing the transferability of lessons from social research or evaluation continues to raise challenges. Efforts to identify transferable lessons can be based on two different forms of argumentation. The first draws upon statistics and causal inferences. The second involves constructing a reasoned case based on weighing up different data collected along the causal chain from designing to delivery. Both approaches benefit from designing research based upon existing evidence and ensuring that the descriptions of the programme, context, and intended beneficiaries are sufficiently rich. Identifying transferable lessons should not be thought of as a one-off event but involves contributing to the iterative and learning of a scientific community. To understand the circumstances under which findings can be confidently transferred, we need to understand: (1) How far and why outcomes of interest have multiple, interacting and fluctuating causes. (2) The program design and implementation capacity. (3) Prior knowledge and causal landscapes (and how far these are included in the theory of change). (4) New and relevant knowledge; what can we learn in our 'disputatious community of truth seekers'.