Is labour migration disrupting dual vocational education and training systems? Empirical evidence from the Danish and Norwegian construction sectors

This article studies how labour migration affects dual vocational education and training (VET) systems. We argue that because dual VET systems rely on employers engaging in training, an alternative source of labour – such as labour migrants – may make employers less likely to train, especially when pressure on industrial relations institutions makes it possible for employers to use migrant labour as low-wage labour. Drawing on linked employer-employee register data from Denmark and Norway, we us logistic and Poisson regression to analyse whether changes in the level of labour migration in regional subsectors of the construction sector in these two countries affects firms’ hiring of apprentices. We find that despite dissimilar developments in the labour migration level, these levels nonetheless correlate with the intake of apprentices in both countries. The results suggest that labour migration into countries with dual VET systems may have long-term effects on their skill formation systems.