Drivers of Air-Sea CO2 Flux in the Subantarctic Zone Revealed by Time Series Observations

The subantarctic zone is an important region in the Southern Ocean with respect to its influence on air-sea CO₂ exchange and the global ocean carbon cycle. However, understanding of the magnitude and drivers of the flux are still being refined. Using observations from the Southern Ocean Time Series (SOTS) station (∼47°S, 142°E) and auxiliary data, we developed a multiple linear regression model to compute the sea surface partial pressure of CO₂ (pCO₂) over the past two decades. The mean amplitude of the pCO₂ seasonal cycle between 2004 and 2021 was 44 μatm (range 30–54 μatm). Summer minima ranged from 310 to 370 μatm and winter maxima were near equilibrium with the atmosphere. The non-thermal (i.e., biological processes and mixing) contribution to the seasonal variability in pCO₂ was several times larger than the thermal contribution. The SOTS region acted as a net carbon sink at annual time scales, with mean magnitude of 6.0 mmol m⁻² d⁻¹. The positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) increased ocean carbon uptake primarily through an increase in wind speed at zero time lag. Increased surface pCO₂ was correlated with a positive SAM with a lag of 4 months, mainly due to reduced biological uptake and increased mixing. During the autotrophic season, pCO₂ was predominantly impacted by primary productivity, whereas water mass movement, inferred by temperature and salinity anomalies, had a larger impact on the heterotrophic season. In general, mesoscale processes such as eddies and frontal movement impact the local biogeochemical features more than the SAM.