评估在气候变暖的世界中人类感知到的不断升级的热浪:中国案例

IF 6.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Jintao Zhang , Guoyu Ren , Qinglong You
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引用次数: 0

摘要

随着全球变暖的加剧,预计热浪将变得更加强烈、频繁和持久。尽管人们已经对热浪的时空特征进行了广泛研究,但这些研究绝大多数仅使用近地面气温,尤其是日最高气温(Tmax)来识别热浪。事实证明,仅用气温来衡量人类的热应力是不够的。在此,我们将相对阈值与绝对阈值结合使用,并以湿球温度(WBGT)为基础,制定了人类感知热浪的新定义。该定义考虑了温度和湿度的综合影响。在此基础上,我们根据同质化的现场观测数据和参加耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)的气候模式输出结果,对中国热浪的气候学和长期变化进行了量化。结果表明,尽管人类感知热浪的空间范围有限,但其分布与中国东南部人口稠密地区相吻合。自 20 世纪 60 年代以来,观测到的人类感知热浪趋势有所加快。目前预计,中度或更严重的人类感知热浪将影响中国一半以上的人口。此外,CMIP6 气候预测表明,除可持续发展情景外,在气候变暖的未来,中国遭受历史上前所未有的人类感知热浪影响的人口比例将迅速增加。我们注意到,人类感知的严重热浪的增加速度比传统的基于 Tmax 的严重热浪的增加速度更快,这表明以往基于 Tmax 的研究可能低估了热浪对人类的危害。我们的研究结果表明,在现有的短期减灾框架之外,迫切需要采取更多的规划和适应行动。虽然本文主要针对中国,但我们评估人类感知热浪的方法很容易扩展到其他地方,以处理类似问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessing the escalating human-perceived heatwaves in a warming world: The case of China

With increased global warming, heatwaves are expected to become more intense, frequent, and persistent. Although the spatiotemporal characteristics of heatwaves have been extensively studied, the vast majority of these studies have solely used near-surface air temperatures, particularly daily maximum temperatures (Tmax), to identify heatwaves. Given that air temperature alone proves inadequate as a metric for human heat stress. Here, using the relative threshold in conjunction with the absolute threshold and basing it on wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT), we develop a novel definition of human-perceived heatwaves. The combined effect of temperature and humidity is considered in this definition. On this basis, we quantify the climatology of and long-term changes in heatwaves in China based on homogenized in situ observations and outputs from climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the distribution of human-perceived heatwaves coincides with densely populated areas in the southeastern part of China, despite their limited spatial extent. The observed trends in human-perceived heatwaves have accelerated since the 1960s. It is now anticipated that moderate or worse human-perceived heatwaves will affect more than half of China's population. Moreover, CMIP6 climate projections suggest that the percentage of China's population exposed to historically unprecedented human-perceived heatwaves would increase rapidly in a warmer future, except for the sustainability scenario. It is noted that the increase in severe human-perceived heatwaves is more rapid than that in severe traditional Tmax-based heatwaves, suggesting that the hazard of heatwaves to humans may have been underestimated by previous Tmax-based studies. Our findings demonstrate the urgent need for additional planning and adaptation actions beyond the framework for short-term disaster reduction frameworks currently in place. Although we concentrated on China in this article, our method for evaluating human-perceived heatwaves is easily extended to handle comparable issues everywhere.

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来源期刊
Weather and Climate Extremes
Weather and Climate Extremes Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.50%
发文量
102
审稿时长
33 weeks
期刊介绍: Weather and Climate Extremes Target Audience: Academics Decision makers International development agencies Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) Civil society Focus Areas: Research in weather and climate extremes Monitoring and early warning systems Assessment of vulnerability and impacts Developing and implementing intervention policies Effective risk management and adaptation practices Engagement of local communities in adopting coping strategies Information and communication strategies tailored to local and regional needs and circumstances
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