探究 2021 年缅甸军事政变的原因

Zeyang Zhu
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摘要

2021 年 2 月 1 日,缅甸军方突然发动军事政变,扣押了包括国务资政昂山素季和总统温敏在内的民主政府部分重要官员,推翻了在 2020 年大选中当选的全国民主联盟(NLD)政府。由于政变发生在大选后仅几个月,其突然发生震惊了世界,引起了学者们的广泛讨论。本文围绕缅甸发生军事政变的原因,从多个角度进行了分析。通过观察政变前缅甸的经济形势和社会矛盾,研究民盟政府的相关措施,本文认为民盟未能解决受制于军政权的问题,军方仍在幕后操纵着国家的实际权力。民盟的一些政治举措甚至使民主政府与军方之间的矛盾更加复杂化,这使军方产生了危机感,从而直接导致了2021年的政变。政变的其他原因还包括民盟未能解决国内的民族、宗教等社会问题,也未能改善经济低迷的状况,这使得军方得以发动政变,阻止民主化的进一步发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
An Exploration of the Causes of the 2021 Military Coup in Myanmar
On February 1, 2021, the Burmese military suddenly staged a military coup, detaining some key officials of the democratic government, including Senior Minister Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint, and overthrowing the National League for Democracy (NLD) government elected in the 2020 election. Since the coup occurred only a few months after the election, its sudden occurrence shocked the world and caused extensive discussions among scholars. Focusing on the reasons for this military coup in Myanmar, this paper analyzes it from multiple perspectives. By observing the economic situation and social conflicts in Myanmar before the coup and studying the relevant measures under the NLD government, this paper argues that the NLD failed to solve the problem of being restricted by the military regime and that the military still manipulated the actual power of the country behind the scenes. Some of the political moves by the NLD even complicated the conflict between the democratic government and the military, which caused the military to have a sense of crisis, thus directly leading to the coup in 2021. Other reasons for the coup were the failure of the NLD to solve social problems, such as ethnic and religious issues in the country, and to improve the economic downturn, which allowed the military to stage a coup to prevent further democratization.
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