现在生孩子不合适失业、生育和堕胎

IF 2.2 2区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Labour Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-03 DOI:10.1016/j.labeco.2023.102492

Flavia Cavallini

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我分析了当地失业率对生育率、堕胎率和堕胎与怀孕比率的影响，并结合了 2004 年至 2016 年期间意大利的人口统计数据和人工流产的行政数据。通过使用衡量劳动力需求的转移工具，我利用了需求驱动的失业冲击。研究结果表明，生育和人工流产都表现出顺周期性，从而表明生育率的变化不仅源于计划怀孕的变化，也源于人工流产发生率的上升。这些影响主要是由 25 岁以上的妇女造成的，在 35-49 岁年龄组中尤为明显，而年轻妇女基本上不受影响。

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Not the right time for children: Unemployment, fertility, and abortion

I analyze the effect of local unemployment rates on fertility rates, abortion rates, and the abortions to pregnancies ratio, combining population statistics and administrative data on induced abortions performed in Italy between 2004 and 2016. Using a shift-share instrument measuring labor demand, I exploit demand-driven shocks to unemployment. The findings indicate that both childbearing and abortions behave pro-cyclically, thus suggesting that changes in fertility rates arise not just from changes in planned pregnancy but also from a higher incidence of abortions. These effects are driven by women above 25 years old, and are particularly large in the 35–49 age group, while younger women are largely unaffected.

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来源期刊

Labour Economics ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.60

自引率

8.30%

发文量

142

期刊介绍： Labour Economics is devoted to publishing research in the field of labour economics both on the microeconomic and on the macroeconomic level, in a balanced mix of theory, empirical testing and policy applications. It gives due recognition to analysis and explanation of institutional arrangements of national labour markets and the impact of these institutions on labour market outcomes.