建立单变量时间序列模型用于预测那空四淡府的登革出血热病例

Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine Pub Date : 2023-08-28 DOI:10.37268/mjphm/vol.23/no.2/art.1911

Siriluk Sintupachee, Onuma Ruksachol, Manit Pollar, Suppawan Promprao

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引用次数: 0

摘要

登革出血热（DHF）是泰国，尤其是南部地区住院和死亡的主要原因。流行病学模型被用来根据流行病数据估计疫情爆发趋势。这项工作的目标是利用泰国公共卫生部疾病控制司 2010 年至 2019 年的月度数据，创建一个用于估计 DHF 发生率的现实模型。采用 Box-Jenkins 方法建立了 SARIMA 模型，利用以前的数据预测登革热发病率。贝叶斯信息标准（BIC）、均方根误差（RMSE）和平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）被用来确定其准确性。结果表明，SARIMA(2,0,1)(1,0,0)12 模型最适合呵叻府大流行病数据。它们的 BIC、MAPE 和 RMSE 分别为 9.64、848.743 和 214.661，准确度最低。DHF ARIMA 模型是必要的，可用于预测其他地区的 DHF 发病率，并有助于制定预防和治疗该疾病的公共卫生措施。

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DEVELOPMENT OF THE UNIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODEL FOR FORECASTING DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER CASES IN NAKHON SI THAMMARAT

Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) is a prominent cause of hospitalization and death in Thailand, especially in the south. Epidemiological modeling was used to estimate the trend of outbreak tendencies based on epidemic data. The goal of this work was to create a realistic model for estimating DHF occurrences using monthly data from the department of disease control, ministry of public health, Thailand from 2010 to 2019. SARIMA model with the Box-Jenkins approach was conducted to forecast dengue incidence using the previous data. Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) were used to determine their accuracy. The result shows that the SARIMA(2,0,1)(1,0,0)12 model fits the Nakhon Si Thammarat pandemic data the best. Their accuracy had the smallest BIC, MAPE, and RMSE yielding 9.64, 848.743, and 214.661, respectively. The DHF ARIMA model is necessary and may be used to forecast the incidence of DHF in other locations as well as help in the development of public health initiatives to prevent and treat the condition.

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来源期刊

Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine Medicine-Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： Malaysian Journal of Public Health Medicine (MJPHM) is the official Journal of Malaysian Public Health Physicians’ Association. This is an Open-Access and peer-reviewed Journal founded in 2001 with the main objective of providing a platform for publication of scientific articles in the areas of public health medicine. . The Journal is published in two volumes per year. Contributors are welcome to send their articles in all sub-discipline of public health including epidemiology, biostatistics, nutrition, family health, infectious diseases, health services research, gerontology, child health, adolescent health, behavioral medicine, rural health, chronic diseases, health promotion, public health policy and management, health economics, occupational health and environmental health.