财政主导对阿尔及利亚货币政策的影响(COVID-19

Benheddi Ikram, Kamel Si Mohammed
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摘要

摘要 在 COVID-19 大流行引发预算赤字增加影响通货膨胀率的可能性和强度的同时,人们对石油出口国政府在财政主导下稳定物价的能力产生了越来越多的担忧。本文研究了 COVID-19 框架下阿尔及利亚非李嘉图制度的可行性,以及财政主导对货币政策的影响。研究表明,使用 ARDL 模型,从 1998 年到 2020 年,预算赤字/GDP、官方汇率、国库券利率、石油价格和广义货币/GDP 都与通货膨胀率显著相关。存在长期协整关系,证明了非李嘉图制度的合法性和财政政策的重要性。实证研究结果表明,预算赤字,尤其是在 COVID-19 期间的预算赤字,对阿尔及利亚通货膨胀起着重要作用,这对中央银行和政府都有影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Effects of Fiscal Dominance on Monetary Policies in Algeria Amidst COVID-19
Abstract While the COVID-19 pandemic has triggered the likelihood and intensity of the increased budget deficit affecting the inflation rate, increasing concerns emerge regarding the ability of governments to stabilize the price under the fiscal dominance in oil-exporting countries. This paper examines the viability of a non-Ricardian regime in Algeria under COVID-19 and the consequences of fiscal dominance on monetary policy. The study demonstrated that budget deficit/GDP, official exchange rate, an interest rate of treasury bills, oil prices, and broad money/GDP are all significantly connected to the inflation rate using an ARDL model from 1998 to 2020. Long-term cointegration is present, supporting the legitimacy of the non-Ricardian regime and the importance of fiscal policy. Empirical findings show the substantial role of the budget deficit, particularly during the COVID-19 period, on Algerian inflation, which has implications for the central bank, government.
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