Temporal analysis and contextual factors associated with HIV/AIDS in Brazil from 2000 to 2019

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE: To describe the profile of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Brazil and its Federation Units by gender, identify its associated contextual factors, and track changes in its epidemiological pattern from 2000 to 2019. METHODS: This is an ecological study with epidemiological data from DATASUS and population data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Time-series analyses of incidence rates by gender and trends were performed by joinpoint regressions, obtaining the average annual percent change (AAPC). Then, all genders were analyzed regarding the association between AAPC and the following contextual indicators: Municipal Human Development Index (HDI-M), Gini Index, Social Vulnerability Index, illiteracy rates, proportion of late diagnosis, and proportion of test distribution. RESULTS: Incidence rates in men showed a linear decreasing trend (AAPC = −0.6; 95%CI −1.1 to 0.0). Rates in women increased from 2000 to 2009 and decreased from 2010 to 2019, tending upward throughout the period (AAPC = 1.4; 95%CI 0.8 to 1.9). Analyses by gender ratio showed a downward trend (AAPC = −1.8; 95%CI −2.3 to −1.3), indicating a reduction in the rates in men when compared to women. Indicators and the AAPC showed an inverse association for all genders, in which the HDI-M was the variable with the most pronounced association, showing that higher human development indices are associated with lower variations in HIV/AIDS rates. CONCLUSION: Case distribution differ across genders, with an upward incidence trend in women and a possible association with gender-related vulnerabilities. It is important to think about public policies that consider these dimensions.