社会灾难的预测:必要性与偶然性之间

IF 1.4 3区 心理学 Q4 PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL
Pierpaolo Donati
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章认为,社会灾难是不饱和社会关系网络的产物,不饱和社会关系网络导致社会罪恶(大流行病、贫困、荒漠化等)以指数形式蔓延。在灾难的指数曲线上有一个拐点,如果未饱和的社会关系达到饱和,灾难就会停止并最终避免。拐点可以被视为一个生成关系的复合体,其中社会关系的必然性和偶然性都在起作用。必然性源于自动的构成机制,因此在某种程度上是数学上可预测的。偶然性指的是非自动的、原则上不可预测的关系机制。然而,偶然性可以分为两种。它可以指 "依赖于 "其他因素,这在一定程度上可以预测;也可以理解为 "以其他方式存在 "的可能性,其结果的可预测性较低,但也可以带来改变灾难性趋势的新机遇。如果拐点处的关系网络在某种程度上达到饱和,就有望将指数曲线降低为物流曲线。要做到这一点,就必须对这两种类型的偶然因素进行管理,以引导社会网络的变形过程,将拐点配置为一个关系综合体。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency

The prediction of social catastrophes: Between necessity and contingency

The article argues that social catastrophes are the product of networks of unsaturated social relations that lead to the exponential spread of a social evil (pandemic, poverty, desertification, etc.). In the exponential curve of catastrophe there is an inflection point where, if unsaturated social relations are saturated, the catastrophe can be halted and ultimately avoided. The inflection point can be conceived as a generative relational complex in which both necessity and contingency of social relations are at work. Necessity is due to constitutive mechanisms that are automatic and, therefore, to some extent mathematically predictable. Contingency refers to non-automatic, in principle unpredictable relational mechanisms. However, contingency can be of two kinds. It can mean “dependence on” other factors, which can have some degree of predictability, or can be understood as the possibility of “being otherwise”, which is less predictable in its outcomes, but can also open up new opportunities to change the catastrophic trend. The reduction of the exponential curve to logistics can be expected if the networks of relationships at the inflection point are saturated in one way or another. This can be achieved by managing the contingent factors of both types in order to steer the morphogenetic processes of the social networks that configure the inflection point as a relational complex.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
14.30%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour publishes original theoretical and methodological articles that examine the links between social structures and human agency embedded in behavioural practices. The Journal is truly unique in focusing first and foremost on social behaviour, over and above any disciplinary or local framing of such behaviour. In so doing, it embraces a range of theoretical orientations and, by requiring authors to write for a wide audience, the Journal is distinctively interdisciplinary and accessible to readers world-wide in the fields of psychology, sociology and philosophy.
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