黄龙病(HLB)的引入对秘鲁柑橘生产链可能造成的经济损失:到 2045 年的前景模拟

IF 1 Q3 AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE
Waldemar Mercado, Katherine Guadalupe, Karla Vega Alegre
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引用次数: 0

摘要

黄龙病(HLB)是一种柑橘病害,众所周知会造成严重的生产损失,而它被引入秘鲁的可能性也迫在眉睫。本研究旨在评估中部丛林柑橘生产链(特别是胡宁地区)的潜在经济损失。该评估包括模拟 2026 年至 2045 年期间 HLB 的传播情况,旨在估算通过实施国家植物检疫计划 (PNF) 防止这些损失的成本效益。本研究采用的方法包括向当地种植者发放调查问卷,并估算三种情况下的经济损失。第一种情景假定没有 HLB 存在的基准生产趋势,第二种情景考虑了有 HLB 但没有实施 PNF 的流行情况。第三种情景考虑到了 HLB,但与 PNF 有关联的种植者采用 HLB 的程度各不相同。研究结果强调了导致 HLB 可能在胡宁蔓延的几个风险因素。流行病学模型显示,HLB 可迅速使幼树失去生产能力。如果不采取任何干预措施,从 2026 年到 2045 年的经济损失累计可达 37114.6 万美元。然而,如果 100%的种植者都采用 PNF,这一数字可大幅减少到 44 890 000 美元。这种公共政策措施不仅能防止生产损失,还能产生巨大的社会效益。这些情况凸显了 HLB 可能对当地橙子生产链造成的严重负面影响。事实证明,实施 PNF 是一项关键的干预措施,可以防止生产损失、保护就业岗位和保障相关经济活动。如果不及时采取公共干预措施,危及的经济损失可能会使农业综合企业部门难以为继。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Possible economic losses on the oranges production chain of Peru due to introduction of Huanglongbing (HLB): Simulation of prospective scenarios to 2045
Huanglongbing (HLB) is a citrus disease known for causing significant production losses, and its potential introduction into Peru looms on the horizon. The aim of this study was to assess the potential economic losses within the Central Jungle's orange production chain, specifically in the Region Junín. This assessment involved simulating the spread of HLB under prospective scenarios spanning from 2026 to 2045, aiming to estimate the cost-benefit of preventing these losses through the implementation of a national phytosanitary program (PNF). The methodology employed in this study comprised administering questionnaires to local growers and estimating economic losses across three scenarios. The first scenario assumed a baseline production trend without HLB presence, while the second scenario considered an epidemiological situation with HLB but without the implementation of a PNF. The third scenario factored in HLB with varying degrees of adoption among PNF-affiliated growers. The findings highlight several risk factors contributing to the potential spread of HLB in Junín. The epidemiological model reveals that HLB can swiftly render young trees unproductive. Cumulatively, economic losses from 2026 to 2045 could reach a staggering US$ 371,146 thousand if no intervention takes place. However, this figure could be significantly reduced to US$ 44,890 thousand if 100% of growers embrace the PNF. Such public policy measures would not only prevent production losses but also generate substantial social benefits. These scenarios underscore the stark negative impacts HLB could inflict on the local orange production chain. The implementation of the PNF proves to be a critical intervention, preventing production losses, preserving jobs, and safeguarding related economic activities. Without timely public intervention, the economic losses at stake could render the agribusiness sector unsustainable.
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来源期刊
Scientia Agropecuaria
Scientia Agropecuaria AGRICULTURE, DAIRY & ANIMAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
27
审稿时长
12 weeks
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