气候变化对农业生产的影响:约旦河谷作物应用研究

A. Alalwan
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对约旦河谷地区农业活动的影响是多方面的,包括经济、社会和安全影响。研究样本包括居住在约旦河谷地区的 9000 名农业从业人员。采用成熟的摩根模型,通过随机抽样技术选取了具有代表性的 368 人。问卷在研究参与者中分发,共收回 350 份问卷。经过仔细检查,确定其中 340 份问卷有效,适合进行分析。为了系统地收集第一手资料,研究人员精心设计了调查工具。研究采用了定量(描述性分析)方法,通过使用社会科学统计软件包 (SPSS) 中的适当统计技术来检查数据和评估假设。 研究结果表明,气候变化与农业生产之间存在显著的统计学关系。分析得出了很大的决定系数(R²=68.5%),表明在农业生产中观察到的变化约有 68.5%可归因于气候变化的影响。本研究提出了一种战略方法,以提高农民对气候变化对各经济部门(包括制造业、能源生产、运输和其他服务业)的间接影响的认识。这可以通过实施研讨会和提高认识会议等教育举措来实现,让农民积极参与学习过程。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Operations: an Applied Study on Crops in the Jordan Valley
Climate change, as manifested through its multifaceted dimensions encompassing economic, social, and security effects, on agricultural activities within the Jordan Valley region. The research sample encompassed a group of 9000 agricultural practitioners residing in the Jordan Valley region. Employing the well-established Morgan model, a representative subset of 368 individuals was selected through a random sampling technique. The questionnaires were disseminated among the participants of the study, resulting in the retrieval of a total of 350 questionnaires. Upon careful examination, it was determined that 340 of these questionnaires were deemed valid and suitable for analysis. A meticulously crafted survey instrument was devised to systematically gather firsthand information. The research employed a quantitative (descriptive analytical) methodology to examine the data and evaluate hypotheses by employing suitable statistical techniques available in the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS).  The findings of the study indicate a noteworthy and statistically significant relationship between climate change and agricultural operations. The analysis yielded a substantial coefficient of determination (R²=68.5%), suggesting that approximately 68.5% of the changes observed in agricultural operations can be attributed to the influence of climate change. The study proposes a strategic approach to enhance farmers' understanding of the indirect impact of climate change on various economic sectors, including manufacturing, energy production, transportation, and other services. This can be achieved through the implementation of educational initiatives, such as seminars and awareness sessions, which actively engage farmers in the learning process.
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