MODELING OF THE NEED FOR OUTPATIENT MEDICAL CARE FOR DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATORY SYSTEM IN THE POPULATION OF OLDER MALE AGE GROUPS

The purpose of the study: to perform mathematical modeling of the need for outpatient medical care for diseases of the circulatory system in the population of older male age groups. Materials and methods of research. As a source of primary information, we used data on cases of medical care provided to the population of older age groups (60 years and older). The probability of treatment in each one-year age range, starting from the age of 60 years, was studied. 41 points were used to construct the dynamic curve. The calculation was made per 1000 population of the corresponding age and gender. The principle of constructing mathematical models was based on a functional approach. As a result of this approach, a system of linear and nonlinear equations was obtained, in each of which the dependence of the volume of medical care on predictor variables was expressed. In this case, age and gender were used as predictor variables. Results. Algebraic formulas were obtained for modeling the level of need for medical care provided in outpatient settings in relation to three blocks of causes (group A of causes). The impact on the level of need of other reasons can be determined using a correction factor. Such coefficients should be applied to the estimated value of the need for three blocks of reasons included in Group A of reasons.