Gregory Gan , A. Janhavi , Guan Tong , Jue Tao Lim , Borame L. Dickens
{"title":"在亚洲和大洋洲采取先发制人的麻痘控制策略的必要性","authors":"Gregory Gan , A. Janhavi , Guan Tong , Jue Tao Lim , Borame L. Dickens","doi":"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.005","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>The transmission dynamics of the recent mpox outbreak highlights the lack of infrastructure available to rapidly respond to novel STI outbreaks, of which Asia and Oceania remains particularly susceptible. Here, we simulate outbreaks in this setting and propose the use of pre-emptive vaccination within the men who have sex with men (MSM) community before the arrival and establishment of the virus.</p></div><div><h3>Materials and methods</h3><p>Using data driven heterogeneous sexual contact networks, we simulated outbreaks of mpox in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sydney. An individual based SEIR compartmental model was used to simulate epidemic trajectories and the impact of different vaccination uptakes was assessed in their ability to avert or suppress outbreaks upon the arrival of mpox within the MSM populations.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The highly dense sexual networks of Singapore and Sydney experience rapid outbreaks, with infection peaks occurring at day 41 and 23 respectively, compared to Hong Kong which occurs at day 77. Across the simulations with no vaccination, 68.2%–89.7% of the MSM community will become infected with mpox across the different cities, over a simulation period of 1 year. By implementing vaccination strategies, the infection rate across the cities can be reduced to as low as 3.1% of the population (range: 3.1%–82.2%) depending on the implementation and uptake of the vaccine. Vaccination is also extremely effective in slowing the start of the epidemic, delaying the epidemic peak by 36–50 days in Hong Kong, or even preventing the outbreak of mpox.</p></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><p>With extremely dense and well-connected sexual contact networks, where 65.2%–83.2% of the population are connected to a super-spreader in the different contact networks, pre-emptive or immediate vaccination upon identification of the first case is strongly recommended to help better manage the outbreak of mpox and prevent potential straining of healthcare systems.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":36831,"journal":{"name":"Infectious Disease Modelling","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001112/pdfft?md5=26cdcc667a3b03925b7734b11878ea09&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001112-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The need for pre-emptive control strategies for mpox in Asia and Oceania\",\"authors\":\"Gregory Gan , A. Janhavi , Guan Tong , Jue Tao Lim , Borame L. Dickens\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.idm.2023.12.005\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>The transmission dynamics of the recent mpox outbreak highlights the lack of infrastructure available to rapidly respond to novel STI outbreaks, of which Asia and Oceania remains particularly susceptible. Here, we simulate outbreaks in this setting and propose the use of pre-emptive vaccination within the men who have sex with men (MSM) community before the arrival and establishment of the virus.</p></div><div><h3>Materials and methods</h3><p>Using data driven heterogeneous sexual contact networks, we simulated outbreaks of mpox in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sydney. An individual based SEIR compartmental model was used to simulate epidemic trajectories and the impact of different vaccination uptakes was assessed in their ability to avert or suppress outbreaks upon the arrival of mpox within the MSM populations.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The highly dense sexual networks of Singapore and Sydney experience rapid outbreaks, with infection peaks occurring at day 41 and 23 respectively, compared to Hong Kong which occurs at day 77. Across the simulations with no vaccination, 68.2%–89.7% of the MSM community will become infected with mpox across the different cities, over a simulation period of 1 year. By implementing vaccination strategies, the infection rate across the cities can be reduced to as low as 3.1% of the population (range: 3.1%–82.2%) depending on the implementation and uptake of the vaccine. Vaccination is also extremely effective in slowing the start of the epidemic, delaying the epidemic peak by 36–50 days in Hong Kong, or even preventing the outbreak of mpox.</p></div><div><h3>Discussion</h3><p>With extremely dense and well-connected sexual contact networks, where 65.2%–83.2% of the population are connected to a super-spreader in the different contact networks, pre-emptive or immediate vaccination upon identification of the first case is strongly recommended to help better manage the outbreak of mpox and prevent potential straining of healthcare systems.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":36831,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":8.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001112/pdfft?md5=26cdcc667a3b03925b7734b11878ea09&pid=1-s2.0-S2468042723001112-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Infectious Disease Modelling\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001112\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"Medicine\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Infectious Disease Modelling","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042723001112","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"Medicine","Score":null,"Total":0}
The need for pre-emptive control strategies for mpox in Asia and Oceania
Introduction
The transmission dynamics of the recent mpox outbreak highlights the lack of infrastructure available to rapidly respond to novel STI outbreaks, of which Asia and Oceania remains particularly susceptible. Here, we simulate outbreaks in this setting and propose the use of pre-emptive vaccination within the men who have sex with men (MSM) community before the arrival and establishment of the virus.
Materials and methods
Using data driven heterogeneous sexual contact networks, we simulated outbreaks of mpox in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Sydney. An individual based SEIR compartmental model was used to simulate epidemic trajectories and the impact of different vaccination uptakes was assessed in their ability to avert or suppress outbreaks upon the arrival of mpox within the MSM populations.
Results
The highly dense sexual networks of Singapore and Sydney experience rapid outbreaks, with infection peaks occurring at day 41 and 23 respectively, compared to Hong Kong which occurs at day 77. Across the simulations with no vaccination, 68.2%–89.7% of the MSM community will become infected with mpox across the different cities, over a simulation period of 1 year. By implementing vaccination strategies, the infection rate across the cities can be reduced to as low as 3.1% of the population (range: 3.1%–82.2%) depending on the implementation and uptake of the vaccine. Vaccination is also extremely effective in slowing the start of the epidemic, delaying the epidemic peak by 36–50 days in Hong Kong, or even preventing the outbreak of mpox.
Discussion
With extremely dense and well-connected sexual contact networks, where 65.2%–83.2% of the population are connected to a super-spreader in the different contact networks, pre-emptive or immediate vaccination upon identification of the first case is strongly recommended to help better manage the outbreak of mpox and prevent potential straining of healthcare systems.
期刊介绍:
Infectious Disease Modelling is an open access journal that undergoes peer-review. Its main objective is to facilitate research that combines mathematical modelling, retrieval and analysis of infection disease data, and public health decision support. The journal actively encourages original research that improves this interface, as well as review articles that highlight innovative methodologies relevant to data collection, informatics, and policy making in the field of public health.