Simulation and Analysis of Land Use Change in Jianghuai Hilly Area Based on PLUS Model

The Jianghuai-Huai Hilly Region (JHHR), being a crucial agricultural and forestry hub within the Yangtze River Economic Belt, holds immense significance in investigating land use dynamics under diverse scenarios. Such exploration not only facilitates the sustainable utilization of land resources but also contributes to ecological environmental preservation and the advancement of regional economic and social development. This study aims to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics and driving forces of land use in JHHR over the past three decades (1990-2020) using 18 driving factors selected from both the natural environment and social economy. We have considered four different scenarios, including Natural Development (ND), Rapid Development (RD), Cultivated Land Protection (CLP), and Ecological Protection (EP). We used the PLUS model to simulate land use changes in JHHR until 2040, and we analyzed the spatial distribution pattern of land under different objectives. The results show that: (1) The main types of land use in the Jianghuai hilly area are arable land and woodland. In the past 30 years, the land use changes have been relatively stable, the area of arable land and woodland has continued to decrease, and the construction land has continued to grow; unused land and grassland have the highest dynamic degree, with the highest comprehensive dynamic degree from 2000 to 2005, at 0.42%; (2) In 2020, the simulation accuracy of land use in different time spans is high, with a Kappa coefficient higher than 0.85 and an overall accuracy higher than 92%, both higher than the standard. (3) The main driving factors for land expansion from 1990 to 2020 were natural factors such as DEM and slope, and the driving forces for construction land mainly came from socio-economic factors. (4) There are obvious gaps in land use changes under different scenarios. A comprehensive comparison of the growth of other types of land use to varying degrees under the ecological protection scenario and under the protection of ecological land use can be used as the optimal development scenario model. The scenario simulation can provide an effective reference for the rational planning and management of land in the Jianghuai hilly area.