Pandemics and cities: Evidence from the Black Death and the long-run

The Black Death killed 40% of Europe’s population between 1347 and 1352, making it one of the largest shocks in the history of mankind. Using a novel dataset that provides information on spatial variation in plague mortality at the city level, as well as various identification strategies, we explore the short-run and long-run impacts of Black Death mortality on city growth. On average, cities recovered their pre-plague populations within two centuries. However, aggregate convergence masked heterogeneity in urban recovery. Both of these facts are consistent with populations returning disproportionally to locations endowed with more rural and urban fixed factors of production. Land suitability and natural and historical trade networks played a vital role in recovery. Our study highlights the role played by the Black Death and physical and economic geography in determining the relative size of European cities.