实验设计中的决策规则假设对偏好恢复的影响:气候变化适应措施的应用

IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Sander van Cranenburgh , Jürgen Meyerhoff , Katrin Rehdanz , Andrea Wunsch
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引用次数: 0

摘要

高效实验设计旨在最大限度地利用从陈述选择数据中获得的信息,从而对离散选择模型的参数进行有效的统计估算。高效实验设计几乎无一例外地假定决策者使用随机效用最大化(RUM)决策规则。在使用此类设计时,研究人员(隐含地)假设用于生成设计的决策规则对受访者的选择行为没有影响。本研究调查了实验设计所依据的决策规则假设是否会影响受访者的选择行为。我们使用了四个关于沿海地区适应气候变化的陈述选择实验:其中两个实验基于效用最大化的最优化实验设计,另外两个基于 RUM 和随机遗憾最小化(RRM)混合的最优化实验设计。总体而言,我们发现受访者重视适应措施(如堤坝和海滩整治)。我们对模型的拟合度进行了评估,并研究了某些选择任务是否特别需要使用 RUM 或 RRM 决策规则。对于后者,我们开发了一种基于抽样的新方法,以避免偏好和决策规则异质性之间的混淆。我们没有发现任何证据表明 RUM 优化设计会引发与 RUM 一致的选择行为。但是,我们发现某些属性与决策规则之间存在关系,而且有令人信服的证据表明,某些选择任务会引发 RUM 一致性行为,而另一些选择任务则会引发 RRM 一致性行为。这意味着受访者的选择行为和选择建模结果与选择任务无关,而当有关偏好的信息被用于气候变化等共同关心的敏感问题的实际决策时,这一点就显得尤为重要。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
On the impact of decision rule assumptions in experimental designs on preference recovery: An application to climate change adaptation measures

Efficient experimental designs aim to maximise the information obtained from stated choice data to estimate discrete choice models' parameters statistically efficiently. Almost without exception efficient experimental designs assume that decision-makers use a Random Utility Maximisation (RUM) decision rule. When using such designs, researchers (implicitly) assume that the decision rule used to generate the design has no impact on respondents' choice behaviour. This study investigates whether the decision rule assumption underlying an experimental design affects respondents' choice behaviour. We use four stated choice experiments on coastal adaptation to climate change: Two are based on experimental designs optimised for utility maximisation and two are based on experimental designs optimised for a mixture of RUM and Random Regret Minimisation (RRM). Generally, we find that respondents place value on adaptation measures (e.g., dykes and beach nourishments). We evaluate the models' fits and investigate whether some choice tasks particularly invoke RUM or RRM decision rules. For the latter, we develop a new sampling-based approach that avoids the confounding between preference and decision rule heterogeneity. We find no evidence that RUM-optimised designs invoke RUM-consistent choice behaviour. However, we find a relationship between some of the attributes and decision rules, and compelling evidence that some choice tasks invoke RUM consistent behaviour while others invoke RRM consistent behaviour. This implies that respondents’ choice behaviour and choice modelling outcomes are not exogenous to the choice tasks, which can be particularly critical when information on preferences is used to inform actual decision-making on a sensitive issue of common interest as climate change.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
31
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