Bima Sakti Satria Wibawa , Yu-Chun Wang , Gerry Andhikaputra , Yu-Kai Lin , Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh , Kun-Hsien Tsai
{"title":"气候多变性对印度尼西亚爪哇岛中部登革热风险的影响","authors":"Bima Sakti Satria Wibawa , Yu-Chun Wang , Gerry Andhikaputra , Yu-Kai Lin , Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh , Kun-Hsien Tsai","doi":"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100433","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Dengue fever is a growing concern for public health under future climate variability. This study aims to investigate the dengue fever from 35 cities/counties linked with historical observation and anomaly of weather variables from 4 weather stations in Indonesia.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>We collected monthly surveillance data of dengue fever in central java, temperature and precipitation from Tegal, Semarang, Tunggul wulung and Sleman weather stations, and flood event from 2009 to 2019. The distributed non-linear model was adopted to evaluate the effect of extremes weather variables and anomalies on the dengue risks. The extreme thresholds were defined at 5th and 99th percentile. Random-effects <em>meta</em>-analysis was applied to estimate weather station-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the studied areas.</p></div><div><h3>Result</h3><p>Dengue prevalence rates were higher in the rainy season (Nov–March) compared to dry season (Apr–Oct). Extreme high temperature was positively associated with dengue fever in Semarang with RR of 4.92 (95 % CI: 1.01, 24.0). Extreme low precipitation was positively associated with dengue fever in Tegal with RR of 9.60 (95 % CI: 2.65, 34.6). The risk of dengue fever in western part of Central Java, especially in the Tunggul wulung, was positively associated with extreme high anomaly of precipitation [RR = 4.05 (95 % CI: 1.86, 13.7). Meanwhile, extreme low anomaly of precipitation was positively associated with the risk of dengue fever with RR of 2.75 (95 % CI: 1.75, 4.32) in Semarang.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>These findings highlight the importance of considering weather variability in addressing the risks associated with dengue fever in Central Java, Indonesia.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51332,"journal":{"name":"Climate Services","volume":"33 ","pages":"Article 100433"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300095X/pdfft?md5=29f7284e4df9a2e9cb0e1ffd50fd1565&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072300095X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The impact of climate variability on dengue fever risk in central java, Indonesia\",\"authors\":\"Bima Sakti Satria Wibawa , Yu-Chun Wang , Gerry Andhikaputra , Yu-Kai Lin , Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh , Kun-Hsien Tsai\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100433\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Dengue fever is a growing concern for public health under future climate variability. This study aims to investigate the dengue fever from 35 cities/counties linked with historical observation and anomaly of weather variables from 4 weather stations in Indonesia.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>We collected monthly surveillance data of dengue fever in central java, temperature and precipitation from Tegal, Semarang, Tunggul wulung and Sleman weather stations, and flood event from 2009 to 2019. The distributed non-linear model was adopted to evaluate the effect of extremes weather variables and anomalies on the dengue risks. The extreme thresholds were defined at 5th and 99th percentile. Random-effects <em>meta</em>-analysis was applied to estimate weather station-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the studied areas.</p></div><div><h3>Result</h3><p>Dengue prevalence rates were higher in the rainy season (Nov–March) compared to dry season (Apr–Oct). Extreme high temperature was positively associated with dengue fever in Semarang with RR of 4.92 (95 % CI: 1.01, 24.0). Extreme low precipitation was positively associated with dengue fever in Tegal with RR of 9.60 (95 % CI: 2.65, 34.6). The risk of dengue fever in western part of Central Java, especially in the Tunggul wulung, was positively associated with extreme high anomaly of precipitation [RR = 4.05 (95 % CI: 1.86, 13.7). Meanwhile, extreme low anomaly of precipitation was positively associated with the risk of dengue fever with RR of 2.75 (95 % CI: 1.75, 4.32) in Semarang.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>These findings highlight the importance of considering weather variability in addressing the risks associated with dengue fever in Central Java, Indonesia.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51332,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Climate Services\",\"volume\":\"33 \",\"pages\":\"Article 100433\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-25\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300095X/pdfft?md5=29f7284e4df9a2e9cb0e1ffd50fd1565&pid=1-s2.0-S240588072300095X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Climate Services\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300095X\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q2\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Climate Services","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S240588072300095X","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
The impact of climate variability on dengue fever risk in central java, Indonesia
Background
Dengue fever is a growing concern for public health under future climate variability. This study aims to investigate the dengue fever from 35 cities/counties linked with historical observation and anomaly of weather variables from 4 weather stations in Indonesia.
Method
We collected monthly surveillance data of dengue fever in central java, temperature and precipitation from Tegal, Semarang, Tunggul wulung and Sleman weather stations, and flood event from 2009 to 2019. The distributed non-linear model was adopted to evaluate the effect of extremes weather variables and anomalies on the dengue risks. The extreme thresholds were defined at 5th and 99th percentile. Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to estimate weather station-specific pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the studied areas.
Result
Dengue prevalence rates were higher in the rainy season (Nov–March) compared to dry season (Apr–Oct). Extreme high temperature was positively associated with dengue fever in Semarang with RR of 4.92 (95 % CI: 1.01, 24.0). Extreme low precipitation was positively associated with dengue fever in Tegal with RR of 9.60 (95 % CI: 2.65, 34.6). The risk of dengue fever in western part of Central Java, especially in the Tunggul wulung, was positively associated with extreme high anomaly of precipitation [RR = 4.05 (95 % CI: 1.86, 13.7). Meanwhile, extreme low anomaly of precipitation was positively associated with the risk of dengue fever with RR of 2.75 (95 % CI: 1.75, 4.32) in Semarang.
Conclusion
These findings highlight the importance of considering weather variability in addressing the risks associated with dengue fever in Central Java, Indonesia.
期刊介绍：
The journal Climate Services publishes research with a focus on science-based and user-specific climate information underpinning climate services, ultimately to assist society to adapt to climate change. Climate Services brings science and practice closer together. The journal addresses both researchers in the field of climate service research, and stakeholders and practitioners interested in or already applying climate services. It serves as a means of communication, dialogue and exchange between researchers and stakeholders. Climate services pioneers novel research areas that directly refer to how climate information can be applied in methodologies and tools for adaptation to climate change. It publishes best practice examples, case studies as well as theories, methods and data analysis with a clear connection to climate services. The focus of the published work is often multi-disciplinary, case-specific, tailored to specific sectors and strongly application-oriented. To offer a suitable outlet for such studies, Climate Services journal introduced a new section in the research article type. The research article contains a classical scientific part as well as a section with easily understandable practical implications for policy makers and practitioners. The journal''s focus is on the use and usability of climate information for adaptation purposes underpinning climate services.
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