开启洞察力:通过数据驱动的机器学习方法分析澳大利亚维多利亚州 COVID-19 封锁政策和流动性数据

IF 2.2 Q3 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INFORMATION SYSTEMS
Data Pub Date : 2023-12-21 DOI:10.3390/data9010003
Shiyang Lyu, O. Adegboye, Kiki Adhinugraha, T. Emeto, David Taniar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

澳大利亚维多利亚州在 2020 年和 2021 年实施了世界上累计时间最长的封锁措施之一。尽管全球范围内的封锁已被证明能有效控制 COVID-19,但在维多利亚州,这种方法在遏制感染率上升方面仍面临挑战。本研究评估了短期(少于 60 天)和长期(超过 60 天)封锁对公众流动性的影响,以及在这些时期内各种社会限制措施的有效性。目的是通过研究不同封锁期限内的各种措施来了解大流行管理的复杂性,从而为制定更有效的 COVID-19 遏制方法做出贡献。利用限制政策、社区流动性和 COVID-19 数据,提出了一个基于机器学习的模拟模型,其中纳入了相关性分析、感染加倍时间和有效封锁日期。模型结果表明,在短期和长期封锁期间,取消公共活动对预防 COVID-19 感染有重要影响,而在长期封锁期间,国际旅行控制也很重要。研究发现,随着短期封锁向长期封锁的过渡,社会限制的效果会明显降低,其特点是公共场所的访问量和公共交通工具的使用量增加,这可能与有效繁殖数(Rt)和感染病例的增加有关。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Unlocking Insights: Analysing COVID-19 Lockdown Policies and Mobility Data in Victoria, Australia, through a Data-Driven Machine Learning Approach
The state of Victoria, Australia, implemented one of the world’s most prolonged cumulative lockdowns in 2020 and 2021. Although lockdowns have proven effective in managing COVID-19 worldwide, this approach faced challenges in containing the rising infection in Victoria. This study evaluates the effects of short-term (less than 60 days) and long-term (more than 60 days) lockdowns on public mobility and the effectiveness of various social restriction measures within these periods. The aim is to understand the complexities of pandemic management by examining various measures over different lockdown durations, thereby contributing to more effective COVID-19 containment methods. Using restriction policy, community mobility, and COVID-19 data, a machine-learning-based simulation model was proposed, incorporating analysis of correlation, infection doubling time, and effective lockdown date. The model result highlights the significant impact of public event cancellations in preventing COVID-19 infection during short- and long-term lockdowns and the importance of international travel controls in long-term lockdowns. The effectiveness of social restriction was found to decrease significantly with the transition from short to long lockdowns, characterised by increased visits to public places and increased use of public transport, which may be associated with an increase in the effective reproduction number (Rt) and infected cases.
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来源期刊
Data
Data Decision Sciences-Information Systems and Management
CiteScore
4.30
自引率
3.80%
发文量
0
审稿时长
10 weeks
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