交通基础设施旁路建设的社会经济效益评估

J. Ćetković, Biljana Ivanović, Radoje Vujadinović, M. Žarković, Marija Grujić
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究的目的是分析罗扎耶(黑山)绕行公路项目第二阶段建设的可行性。修建该绕行线的目的是通过将过境流转向绕行线来消除或减少现有问题。根据观测到的建设经济成本和 20 年内项目的预期经济效益,通过成本效益分析 (CBA),确定了项目经济可行性指标。作为项目可行性的社会经济分析的一部分,对交通用户的预期效益(旅行时间的节省和车辆开发成本的节省)以及外部影响(对安全的影响和对环境的影响)进行了评估。分析表明,节省的主要是旅行时间和车辆使用成本。该项目的经济净现值 (ENPV) 为正值,达 55 054 502 欧元,经济内部收益率 (EIRR) 为 26.88%(贴现率为 5%),而效益成本比 (B/CR) 为 4.96。项目敏感性分析中提出的所有方案都证实,该项目具有令人满意的经济合理性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Assessment of Socio-Economic Benefits from the Construction of Bypasses of Transport Infrastructure
The aim of the study is to analyse the feasibility of the second phase of the construction of the Rožaje (Montenegro) bypass project. The objectives of the construction of this bypass are to eliminate or reduce existing problems by redirecting transit flows to the bypass. Based on the observed economic costs of construction and the expected economic benefits from the project in a 20-year period, by applying Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA), the indicators of the project economic feasibility were determined. As part of the socio-economic analysis of the project feasibility, the expected benefits for transport users (savings in travel time and savings in the vehicle exploitation costs), as well as external impacts (impacts on safety and impacts on the environment) were assessed. The analysis showed the dominant savings are in travel time and vehicle exploitation costs. The economic net present value (ENPV) of this project is positive and amounts to EUR 55 054 502, the economic internal rate of return (EIRR) is 26.88% (with a discount rate of 5%), while the benefit-cost ratio (B/CR) is 4.96. All scenarios developed within the Project Sensitivity Analysis have confirmed that this project has satisfactory economic justification.
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