{"title":"能源转型与减少气候变化:宏观经济分析","authors":"Lucas Bretschger","doi":"10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101423","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The paper integrates the characteristics of regenerative energies into a dynamic macroeconomic model with climate change. Learning and economies of scale in new energy moderate the cost of emissions reductions and increase the speed of decarbonization. I provide closed-form analytical solutions for the development of regenerative energies, emissions, consumption, and population. The elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs, stringency of climate policy, and potential raw material scarcity constitute critical conditions for reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. I find that a timely carbon phase-out requires sufficient substitution in the energy sector, continued learning and scale effects in regenerative energies, and active climate policy, which is indispensable even with enormous cost degression of regenerative energies. Raw material scarcity induced by regenerative energy use slows down the transition but can be overcompensated by more stringent climate policy at a moderate economic cost.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47952,"journal":{"name":"Resource and Energy Economics","volume":"76 ","pages":"Article 101423"},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765523000787/pdfft?md5=a68cd940e45a23afb3281755636957d8&pid=1-s2.0-S0928765523000787-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Energy transition and climate change abatement: A macroeconomic analysis\",\"authors\":\"Lucas Bretschger\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.reseneeco.2023.101423\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The paper integrates the characteristics of regenerative energies into a dynamic macroeconomic model with climate change. Learning and economies of scale in new energy moderate the cost of emissions reductions and increase the speed of decarbonization. I provide closed-form analytical solutions for the development of regenerative energies, emissions, consumption, and population. The elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs, stringency of climate policy, and potential raw material scarcity constitute critical conditions for reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. I find that a timely carbon phase-out requires sufficient substitution in the energy sector, continued learning and scale effects in regenerative energies, and active climate policy, which is indispensable even with enormous cost degression of regenerative energies. Raw material scarcity induced by regenerative energy use slows down the transition but can be overcompensated by more stringent climate policy at a moderate economic cost.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47952,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Resource and Energy Economics\",\"volume\":\"76 \",\"pages\":\"Article 101423\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765523000787/pdfft?md5=a68cd940e45a23afb3281755636957d8&pid=1-s2.0-S0928765523000787-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Resource and Energy Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765523000787\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resource and Energy Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0928765523000787","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Energy transition and climate change abatement: A macroeconomic analysis
The paper integrates the characteristics of regenerative energies into a dynamic macroeconomic model with climate change. Learning and economies of scale in new energy moderate the cost of emissions reductions and increase the speed of decarbonization. I provide closed-form analytical solutions for the development of regenerative energies, emissions, consumption, and population. The elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy inputs, stringency of climate policy, and potential raw material scarcity constitute critical conditions for reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. I find that a timely carbon phase-out requires sufficient substitution in the energy sector, continued learning and scale effects in regenerative energies, and active climate policy, which is indispensable even with enormous cost degression of regenerative energies. Raw material scarcity induced by regenerative energy use slows down the transition but can be overcompensated by more stringent climate policy at a moderate economic cost.
期刊介绍:
Resource and Energy Economics provides a forum for high level economic analysis of utilization and development of the earth natural resources. The subject matter encompasses questions of optimal production and consumption affecting energy, minerals, land, air and water, and includes analysis of firm and industry behavior, environmental issues and public policies. Implications for both developed and developing countries are of concern. The journal publishes high quality papers for an international audience. Innovative energy, resource and environmental analyses, including theoretical models and empirical studies are appropriate for publication in Resource and Energy Economics.