千言万语比数字更能说明问题：金融危机与历史头条

IF 6.1 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Financial Stability Pub Date : 2023-12-16 DOI:10.1016/j.jfs.2023.101209

Kim Ristolainen , Tomi Roukka , Henri Nyberg

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们的研究表明，金融危机发生之前，报纸文章标题中所包含的特定类型的叙述信息会发生变化。我们新颖的国际数据集和由此产生的经验证据是通过将 1870 年至 2016 年间全球报纸上大量经济新闻文章的信息与传统的宏观经济和金融指标相结合而收集的。我们发现，报纸文章标题对即将到来的危机事件的预测信息远远超过了宏观经济和金融指标。特征贡献分析和危机案例研究表明，新指标捕捉到了更多有关危机积累的细节信息，但仍具有普遍性。

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A thousand words tell more than just numbers: Financial crises and historical headlines

We show that financial crises are preceded by changes in specific types of narrative information contained in newspaper article titles. Our novel international dataset and the resulting empirical evidence are gathered by integrating information from a large panel of economic news articles in global newspapers between the years 1870 and 2016 with conventional macroeconomic and financial indicators. We find that the predictive information of newspaper article titles that signals coming crisis episodes is substantial over and above the macroeconomic and financial indicators. Feature contribution analysis and crisis case studies reveal that the new indicators capture more detailed, but still generalizable information on the buildup of crises.

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来源期刊

Journal of Financial Stability Multiple-

CiteScore

7.70

自引率

9.30%

发文量

审稿时长

34 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Financial Stability provides an international forum for rigorous theoretical and empirical macro and micro economic and financial analysis of the causes, management, resolution and preventions of financial crises, including banking, securities market, payments and currency crises. The primary focus is on applied research that would be useful in affecting public policy with respect to financial stability. Thus, the Journal seeks to promote interaction among researchers, policy-makers and practitioners to identify potential risks to financial stability and develop means for preventing, mitigating or managing these risks both within and across countries.