制裁 "第二波 "下的俄罗斯工业企业:应对策略

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
Y. Simachev, A. A. Yakovlev, V. V. Golikova, N. Gorodnyi, B. V. Kuznetsov, M. G. Kuzyk, A. Fedyunina
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引用次数: 0

摘要

文章介绍了一项研究项目的初步结果,该项目旨在分析2022年“第二波”制裁对俄罗斯公司行为的影响,评估他们适应新条件的行动。本文基于2022年8月至11月期间对1860家俄罗斯制造公司经理的调查数据。尽管制裁的严重性和范围,但三分之一的公司没有采取适应措施,特别是没有创新活动的技术落后的本地公司。总的来说,与局限于国内市场的公司相比,融入全球经济的公司对新威胁的反应更为积极。我们发现,企业对制裁冲击的反应存在显著差异。确定了企业应对的四种基本准策略。第一项措施涉及减少当前的活动、就业和投资。这些行为在融入全球价值链的行业最为常见,尤其是汽车行业和木材加工行业。第二个战略包括简化产品以减少对进口的依赖、寻找新市场和改变投资方向——这通常见于制药公司。第三种方法是改变材料和部件的供应渠道,橡胶和塑料制品制造商经常采用这种方法。第四个战略侧重于数字化、开发新产品和加强与当局的互动。这是一些行业的特点,这些行业的市场由于主要外国企业的退出而形成了利基市场,尤其是家具制造业。我们强调了对国家反危机政策的以下建议:在2022年,企业适应的相对成功与实施“容易”的进口替代有关。然而,未来将需要优先支持发展国内技术和增加获取知识的机会。在高度不确定的情况下,帮助企业建立自己的价值链至关重要,而政府行动的可预测性似乎是增强私人主动性的重要因素。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Russian industrial companies under the “second wave” of sanctions: Response strategies
The article presents initial findings of a research project aimed at analyzing the impact of the “second wave” of sanctions in 2022 on the behavior of Russian companies, assesses their actions to adapt to the new conditions. This paper is based on survey data collected from managers of 1860 Russian manufacturing companies between August and November 2022. Despite the severity and scope of the sanctions, one third of the companies did not take adaptation measures, particularly local, technologically backward firms without innovative activity. On the whole, firms integrated into the global economy reacted more actively to new threats than those confined to the domestic market. We found significant variability in companies’ responses to the sanctions shock. Four basic quasistrategies of firms’ response are identified. The first one involved reducing current activities, employment, and investments. These actions were most common in industries integrated into global value chains, notably automotive industry and wood processing. The second strategy included simplifying products to reduce dependence on imports, finding new markets, and changing investment directions — typically seen in pharmaceutical firms. The third one consisted of altering supply channels for materials and components, and it was frequently adopted by manufacturers of rubber and plastic products. The fourth strategy focused on digitalization, developing new products, and increasing interaction with authorities. This was characteristic of industries whose markets have carved out niches due to the exits of major foreign players, in particular, manufacture of furniture. We highlight the following recommendations for the state anti-crisis policy: In 2022, the relative success of companies’ adaptation was associated with the implementation of “easy” import substitution. However, in the future there will be a need to prioritize support for the development of domestic technologies and increased access to knowledge. In conditions of high uncertainty, it is crucial to assist companies in building their own value chains, and predictability of government actions appears to be a significant factor in enhancing private initiative.
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来源期刊
Voprosy Ekonomiki
Voprosy Ekonomiki ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
25.00%
发文量
86
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